BWI Roundtable: Initial 2020 Penn State schedule impressions

This looks to me like a pretty tough draw. The Nittany Lions’ previous schedule featured crossover games against Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska and Iowa. The new slate eliminates the Wildcats and Illini, two teams that went a combined 9-16 last season, and keeps the Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes. Yes, Nebraska has been in a rut lately, and no, the Lions aren’t going to have a hostile crowd ready to greet them in Lincoln. But this still looks like a very dangerous game in a place where Penn State hasn’t won since 1981. It’s hard for me to believe that Scott Frost isn’t going to get that program pointed back in the right direction sooner or later.

As for the divisional games, everyone is fixated on the week two matchup vs. Ohio State. That’s understandable; it’s weird to have a potentially season-defining game taking place so early in the schedule. But the opener at Indiana also gives me pause. When Penn State faced the Hoosiers two years ago, Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury and had to leave the game. Last year, Penix sat out the Hoosiers’ visit to Beaver Stadium due to a season-ending shoulder injury he received two weeks earlier against Northwestern. When healthy, Penix has been a very dynamic dual-threat quarterback. This year, he should be in great physical shape for his matchup with Penn State, which means he’ll be a tough guy to chase down, especially for a defense that hasn’t done much tackling since last December. The Ohio State game looms large, as it always does, but the Lions absolutely can’t afford to look past their opener.

Two games always stood out on Penn State's 2020 schedule long before COVID-19 ever came into our collective consciousness.

Ohio State at Beaver Stadium and Michigan on the road.

Yes, Virginia Tech highlighted the non conference portion of the schedule, especially on the road for the first-ever meeting between the two programs. And of course, the likes of at Nebraska, Iowa, and even at Indiana always stood to provide compelling competition.

But from the moment Penn State walked off the Cotton Bowl field as a 53-39 winner against Memphis, the bottom line on the Nittany Lions' 2020 success - for which the program and its fans held extremely high aspirations - was that they'd have to get past the Buckeyes in a home Whiteout and the Wolverines at the Big House.

Dropping the past three to the Buckeyes since the unforgettable 2016 matchup between the two teams, the Nittany Lions have to beat the best to be the best, as the kids say. And in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have a foe that has drummed up a combined 91-17 beatdown in the past two meetings in Ann Arbor.

Now that everything has been upended, the Big Ten canceling all non conference games in July, releasing a 10-game conference-only schedule in August, abruptly canceling it altogether a few days later, and finally re-releasing a new eight-game slate Saturday, the reality is that the same things hold true for this Penn State team.

Certainly, opening at Indiana on Oct. 24 will be a test. Bloomington has been the site of some high-scoring contests the past few years and this one figures to again be explosive. But it's a Halloween (night?) matchup with Ohio State that will set the tone for whether the Nittany Lions will have a realistic shot at the College Football Playoff the rest of the way. Get through the first two and, in many ways, the rest of the schedule sets up much like last year's, creating a gradual crescendo toward that Michigan game before leveling out in the last two.

We already knew that Penn State would face two of the three crossover games that were originally on the schedule. Keeping Nebraska and Iowa is the tougher draw, so that’s unfortunate if the goal is to go undefeated. When compared to Ohio State, the Buckeyes kept Illinois and dropped Iowa.

The Nittany Lions also have a tricky season opener traveling to Indiana. The Hoosiers have given Penn State a challenge three of the past four years, so they won’t have time to get comfortable with Kirk Ciarrocca’s new offense. If that’s a tough start, it won’t get any easier in week two with Ohio State coming to town. When’s the last time Penn State had a home opener with so much on the line? Miami 2001 comes to mind. Also, 2000 against USC and 1999 against Arizona. Either way, it’s been awhile.

But also, with no fans in attendance, what will home-field advantage really mean this year? Normally, having Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State all at home would be ideal, but I almost think Penn State would prefer to swap this year’s schedule with next year. That way, when fans do return to Beaver Stadium in 2021, they won’t have a home slate that consists of Ball State, Illinois, Indiana and Rutgers. Michigan and Auburn at home next year is nice, but overall, the Big Ten slate isn’t good.

At the same time, travel does have an impact and Penn State has a team this year that could do big things, so when you consider that, the schedule does line up well for the Nittany Lions. But this is a year where one loss early could have a bigger impact than normal on the remaining games. That’s what makes week two versus Ohio State so intriguing. However, if they can pull the upset, those remaining games are going to be a lot of fun. Nerve-racking for fans, sure, but fun nonetheless.

The first thing that jumps out to you when you look at Penn State’s schedule is Ohio State in Week 2. On Halloween. You might call that spooky. And from there, you’re hit straight with the concern that the Nittany Lions only get one “tune-up” against Indiana before they have to play the biggest game they’ll play all season. That’s one chance for Kirk Ciarrocca to see his new offense in action. But despite that, I’m going to make the argument here that playing Ohio State early on in the season is a good thing. Let’s be honest: On paper, Ohio State is the better team. Ohio State has beaten the Nittany Lions in each of the last three seasons and was in total control for most of last season’s game despite some turnover trouble. Justin Fields is the best quarterback in the conference and might be the best quarterback in the country. All of that is to say, it might be a good thing for Penn State to play them before they’re fully clicking, even if the Nittany Lions might not have things running smoothly by Week 2 either, because the Buckeyes’ best is likely better than Penn State’s best.

From there, you look at the crossover games. Penn State will be happy to avoid Wisconsin, but Iowa and Nebraska will both likely be tough games. You’d certainly rather see an Illinois or a Purdue on the schedule if you’re James Franklin. It also leaves the Nittany Lions with a pretty tough three-game stretch just after the midway point of the season, which will send them to Nebraska, before returning home for Iowa, then going to Michigan. Even if you think the Nittany Lions are better than that trio, it will be difficult to get through all three of those games without a dent.

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