Will PSU get a 2023 commit in October? Omari Evans outlook: Roundtable
Penn State has 25 Class of 2022 commitments, three in the Class of 2023, and is getting set to host another group of recruits for a primetime game, this time against Indiana on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
The Nittany Lions have been busy on the trail for almost the entirety of the year, and it's not going to slow down anytime soon with about two-and-a-half months until the early signing period and numerous home games that will bring prospects and their families to State College.
The latest installment of BWI's recruiting roundtable focuses on forecasting future commitment possibilities, among other things, as Ryan Snyder and Greg Pickel return to offer their insight below.
What's the outlook for Penn State on Omari Evans? And why do the Nittany Lions want another receiver?
Snyder: I put in a FutureCast for Omari Evans Tuesday night after speaking with a few people I trust. I will say that both contacts made it clear to me that Rutgers was working hard this week to keep themselves in the race, but all signs were pointing to the Nittany Lions as of Tuesday night. I wouldn't say it's completely a done deal as of Thursday morning, but I feel as if he's certainly leaning this way. Evans came to Penn State back in June and put in one of the more impressive workouts of any 2022 prospect this year. It wasn't just his 4.3-second 40 either, but also what he showed them in field drills, as well as just the overall interactions he had with the staff. He left a really strong impression on the Nittany Lion coaching staff that day. I know a lot of fans want to see PSU make a big push for Andre Greene, but I just don't see enough interest from him for the staff to potentially pass up on a player they think can be a real threat in the vertical pass game.
Also, as we see every year, guys are going to transfer out. Jahan Dotson and Cam Sullivan-Brown will be gone after this year, and Daniel George and Norval Black haven't made much of an impact on the field. That leaves just six other scholarship wide receivers on the roster currently. Two of them are contributing, but aside from that, there remans a lot of questions about who's next in that receiver corps. I think that's a big reason why they want to load up on talent this year. I'll also note that, when you look at the 2023 wide receivers they're pursuing, I can't find too many players that I think are heavily leaning in Penn State's direction at the moment. Ejani Shakir and Rodney Gallagher make sense, but aside from them, Bryson Rodgers, Christian Hamilton and Noah Rogers are really the only other scholarship receivers who have visited so far. Others will surely visit with time, but when you look at the 2023 wide receiver board, it's very heavy with prospects outside of Penn State's normal stomping grounds. Keep that in mind.
Pickel: First things first: Evans has roots in Ohio, which is one reason Penn State and Rutgers have been able to thrive in this recruitment. Greg Schiano has typically recruited outside of New Jersey well, too, and Terry Smith has established a presence there, so that is how these two Big Ten East schools ended up as the presumed finalists here. As you can see with Ryan's FutureCast prediction, the Nittany Lions look to be in good shape here, and adding another receiver isn't as crazy as it might seem. We know that the transfer portal is always in play, and even if PSU has commitments from Kaden Saunders, Tyler Johnson, and Anthony Ivey already, in addition to whichever spot Cristian Driver and Mehki Flowers end up at, we've reached a point in the recruiting world where you have to take numbers when you can get them and let the future sort itself out.
Are pregame, on-field commitments a good or bad thing?
Snyder: I'm surprised at how many people have questioned this over the past week. When you host 130 prospects for the White Out game, there are surely plenty of distractions, but those 30 seconds on the field aren't one of them. As Mathias Barnwell admitted yesterday, he really committed to Penn State the Sunday after the White Out game, so his commitment was more ceremonial than anything else. I think Penn State's staff is always trying to maximize positive news, and having players commit while everyone is in town is one way of doing that. So, it's definitely a good thing. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 2023 prospect follow this trend before the end of the season.
Pickel: Personally, I love it. College football programs are always looking for the new, trendy thing they can become known for, and there's no doubt in my mind that prospects love the chance to be with their families and tell James Franklin in person they're joining the program prior to kickoff, even if the true commitment moment came at some other point of their visit (or a previous one). Then, they get a photo on the field, everyone is excited (which goes for any commitment of course) and the social media love comes quickly. I realize why some fans might question this, but it works for Penn State and the recruits who want to become future players, and that's all that matters.
Will PSU land a 2023 commitment in October?
Snyder: Winning on the field is oftentimes the best way to win on the recruiting trail, so as long as that continues, I think we'll see at least one. With Barnwell now committed, Joey Schlaffer becomes even more interesting in my eyes. I don't see Penn State taking three tight end prospects for 2023. All four of their tight ends currently on roster have at least two years of eligibility remaining, so there isn't a need - unless we see a transfer or two - for more than two. Schlaffer already has close ties to Penn State and its staff, with Michal Menet being his half-brother, so he was already someone I was watching closely. Now, with Barnwell committed, he has another reason to potentially end this sooner than later.
Pickel: The commitment crush is starting to normalize a bit after a weird two cycles during which they came at times that nobody would have expected before and in volumes that didn't always match the calendar expectations. That said, while many schools land pledges in the third-to-last month of any particular year, Penn State has typically not done so in the Franklin era. So, I'm going to answer this question with a no, which may be surprising and isn’t a straight dismissal of Ryan’s point but rather a hunch based on past data. The numbers break down like this, and remember, we're looking at a recruit who commits two Octobers before he can sign:
Class of 2021: 1 (Liam Clifford)
Class of 2020: 0
Class of 2019: 1 (Ta'Quan Roberson)
Class of 2018: 0
Class of 2017: 0
Class of 2016: 0
Is October going to be a slower recruiting month with just two home games?
Snyder: It depends on how you want to look at it. If you're referring to just commitments, yeah, probably. It's hard for me to see three or four commitments coming next month. With that said, recruiting never really slows down. We haven't seen a large group of assistant coaches hit the road yet to scout players. I would expect that to come during the bye week. That's always interesting to follow. They'll see a ton of committed players that weekend, but they'll also be dropping by the schools of some top 2023 players. That usually provides a look into who the staff's most important prospects are in the next class. Also, we usually see a good amount of offers go out in October, as the staff will have been able to review multiple games of film for so many prospects by then.
Pickel: I'll hedge slightly and say probably. An almost full Class of 2022 plus my answer to the Class of 2023 question above are why, but it will be anything but slow for the staff. They'll have a chance to make stops in the midwest before both the Iowa and Ohio State games in October while also touring all over the country during a well-earned bye week for the players. I'd expect the offers to go out somewhat hot and heavy, and that will carry the month, but things will be dialed back in terms of both additions and marquee visitors in the month ahead.
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