Phil's Key Matchups: Wisconsin
WHEN PENN STATE HAS THE BALL
PENN STATE RUNNING GAME VS. WISCONSIN RUN DEFENSE
PENN STATE RUNNING GAME 207.9 YPG, 5.3 YPC // WISCONSIN RUN DEFENSE 159.4 YPG, 4.7 YPC
THE LOWDOWN Penn State’s running game is coming off its worst performance of the season against Michigan. The Nittany Lions rushed for just 68 yards on 30 carries (2.3 ypc) in their 42-7 loss in Ann Arbor, getting only 14 yards from Miles Sanders on seven carries and surrendering five sacks. The performance dropped PSU to sixth in the Big Ten in rushing offense. Sanders is Penn State’s leading rusher with 848 yards and eight touchdowns on 143 carries (5.9 ypc). QB Trace McSorley is the team’s second-leading rusher with 611 yards on 122 carries (5.0 ypc) and nine TDs. Both are still ranked among the Big Ten’s top 10 rushers. The real problem here is that McSorley will probably have to play at less than 100 percent against Wisconsin because of the right knee injury he suffered against Iowa. Wisconsin’s run defense has been solid for the most part, ranking seventh in the Big Ten. ILB Ryan Connelly is the Badgers’ leading tackler with 65 total stops including seven tackles for loss. ILB T.J. Edwards is next with 62 tackles and leads Wisconsin with 8.5 tackles for loss. OLB Zack Baun has 39 tackles. As a team, Wisconsin ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten with 42 TFL. //
KEY MATCHUP For Penn State to reverse its rushing problems, guards Connor McGovern and Steven Gonzalez will need to get to the second level to control Connelly and Edwards. The linebackers are the heart and soul of Wisconsin’s 3-4 defense.
EDGE Even
PENN STATE PASSING GAME VS. WISCONSIN PASS DEFENSE
PENN STATE PASSING GAME 221.2 YPG, 14.4 YPC // WISCONSIN PASS DEFENSE 193.3 YPG, 12.1 YPC
THE LOWDOWN Penn State had by far its worst passing performance of the season against Michigan, as McSorley completed only 5 of 13 attempts for 83 yards and an interception. Tommy Stevens replaced McSorley but didn’t fare much better. He led the Lions to their only touchdown but also threw a pick-six. For the season, McSorley has completed 52 percent of his attempts for 1,711 yards, with 12 TD passes and five interceptions. Penn State’s pass offense ranks ninth in the Big Ten, a major disappointment given that the Lions led the league in passing last season. A big reason for that downturn is that the receivers have dropped 26 passes. Penn State’s leading receiver is K.J. Hamler with 28 catches for 517 yards and five TDs. Juwan Johnson is second with 21 catches for 293 yards and one TD, but he didn’t make the trip to Michigan due to an injury, and his status for Saturday’s game is unknown. Wisconsin, despite a series of injuries in its secondary, comes into this game with the fourth-rated pass defense in the Big Ten. The Badgers have intercepted 10 passes, including two picks apiece by Edwards, CB Madison Cone and FS Evan Bondoc. Edwards also leads the Badgers with three sacks. SS D’Cota Dixon has missed three games this season with an injury, but is expected to play on Saturday.
KEY MATCHUP Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth will go up against Dixon in one of the game’s biggest matchups. Also, Hamler will face freshman FS Scott Nelson.
EDGE Even
WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL
WISCONSIN RUNNING GAME VS. PENN STATE RUN DEFENSE
WISCONSIN RUNNING GAME 273.0 YPG, 6.2 YPC // PENN STATE RUN DEFENSE 172.2 YPG, 4.1 YPC
THE LOWDOWN Penn State will have its hands full with Wisconsin’s ground game. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing, thanks primarily to Jonathan Taylor, who has gained an FBS-leading 1,363 yards running behind a typically massive offensive line. Taylor is coming off a terrific performance against Rutgers in which he gained 208 yards and scored three TDs to raise his season total to 11. And he’s not the Badgers’ only threat. Taiwan Deal has totaled 438 yards, while Garrett Groshek has 302 and Alex Ingold 132. Penn State’s run defense has struggled at times this season, ranking 10th in the Big Ten. Micah Parsons is Penn State’s leading tackler with 49 stops, while fellow OLB Cam Brown is next with 48 tackles including five tackles for loss, followed by FS Nick Scott with 47 tackles. Penn State leads the Big Ten with 67 tackles for loss, including a team-high 13.5 by DE Yetur Gross-Matos. Two other defensive ends – Shareef Miller and Shaka Toney – have combined for 16 TFL.
KEY MATCHUP The crucial battle here will pit offensive tackles Jon Dietzen and David Edwards against Gross-Matos and Miller. If Penn State hopes to control Wisconsin’s outside zone running game, its starting DEs will need to hold their own. That won’t be easy, because Edwards stands 6-foot-7, 319 pounds, and Dietzen is 6-6, 326. Expect Taylor to surpass 150 yards.
EDGE Wisconsin
WISCONSIN PASSING GAME VS. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
WISCONSIN PASSING GAME 174.2 YPG, 12.4 YPC // PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE 216.3 YPG, 10.5 YPC
THE LOWDOWN QB Alex Hornibrook has seen only two quarters of action in Wisconsin’s past two games because of concussion concerns, and the passing game has suffered. For the season, Hornibrook has completed 58.1 percent of his attempts for 1,343 yards, with 11 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The Badgers’ pass offense ranks 11th in the Big Ten. Jack Coan replaced Hornibrook against Northwestern and in the second half of last week’s game vs. Rutgers, completing 25 of 38 passes (65.8 percent) for 222 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was unclear as of this writing whether Hornibrook would be able to play against Penn State. The Badgers’ leading receiver is TE Jake Ferguson with 25 catches for 361 yards and three TDs. Wide receivers A.J. Taylor and Danny Davis have 24 catches apiece, for 406 and 265 yards, respectively. Penn State ranks sixth in the Big Ten in pass defense, but opponents have completed only 54.4 percent of their attempts and have thrown only 13 touchdown passes. The Lions have totaled nine interceptions through nine games. Safeties Garrett Taylor and Scott and CB Amani Oruwariye all have two picks apiece. Penn State is tied with Michigan for the Big Ten lead with 29 sacks. Gross-Matos has a team-high seven sacks.
KEY MATCHUP For Wisconsin to have any success throwing the ball against Penn State, Dietzen and Edwards will have to keep Gross-Matos, Miller and Toney away from Hornibrook and/or Coan.
EDGE Penn State
SPECIAL TEAMS
THE LOWDOWN Wisconsin’s special teams have not been exceptional this season, but they still get the edge over a Penn State kicking game that has been up and down all year. PK Rafael Gaglianone has converted on 7 of 10 field goal attempts, his longest being 42 yards. Gaglianone, a senior, has more than 60 field goals in his Wisconsin career. Jack Dunn is averaging 8.9 yards per punt return, while Aron Cruickshank is averaging 20 yards per kickoff return, with a long return of 34 yards. Punting has been a problem for Wisconsin all season, and the Badgers have turned to Connor Allen to replace Anthony Lotti. The one real plus for Penn State’s special teams is Hamler, who has averaged 26.9 yards per kickoff return.
EDGE Wisconsin
THIS ’N’ THAT
THE LOWDOWN The series between Wisconsin and Penn State is tied, 9-9, but the Lions are riding a three-game winning streak. They’re also playing at home, so that might be worth a few points. But one major concern has to be the amount of time that their defense has been on the field the past few weeks. Michigan held the ball for 37 minutes, and the Badgers are good at using their ground game to wear down opposing defenses.
EDGE Even
COACHING STAFF
THE LOWDOWN This is Paul Chryst’s fourth year as Wisconsin’s head football coach. He has amassed a record of 40-10 in Madison, including a 6-3 record this year. The Badgers have played in the Big Ten Championship Game the past three seasons, but they are long shots to return this year. This is the first regular-season game between Penn State and Wisconsin since Chryst’s arrival. James Franklin’s team did prevail in the one meeting between the two coaches, as Penn State topped the Badgers to claim the Big Ten title in 2016.
EDGE Even