Phil's Key Matchups: Ohio State

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PENN STATE RUNNING GAME vs. OHIO STATE RUN DEFENSE

PENN STATE RUNNING GAME 173.1 YPG, 4.5 YPC OHIO STATE RUN DEFENSE 90.4 YPG, 2.5 YPC

THE LOWDOWN Penn State enters its game at Ohio State ranked fifth in the Big Ten in rushing offense, thanks in large part to Journey Brown. The redshirt sophomore put together consecutive 100-yard games against Minnesota and Indiana and is the Nittany Lions’ leading rusher this season with 521 yards and six touchdowns on 86 carries. QB Sean Clifford is the Lions’ second-leading rusher with 374 yards and five TDs on 97 carries. Noah Cain, despite having not played since the first quarter of the Michigan State game, is Penn State’s third-leading rusher with 350 yards and six TDs on 68 carries. PSU capped its game against Indiana last weekend with an impressive 18-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, but rushing yards will be a lot harder to come by on Saturday. That’s because the Buckeyes rank second in the Big Ten in run defense. Their leading tackler is WLB Malik Harrison with 52 stops, including 12.5 tackles for loss. Preseason All-Big Ten FS Jordan Fuller is second with 45 tackles, while linebackers Pete Werner and Tuf Borland have 39 and 35, respectively. Ohio State leads the Big Ten with 93 tackles for loss, including a nation-leading 15.5 by DE Chase Young.

KEY MATCHUPS Penn State left tackles Rasheed Walker and Des Holmes will take on Young, while guards Steven Gonzalez, Mike Miranda and C.J. Thorpe will battle the Buckeyes’ linebacker trio. Before his two-game suspension, Young was a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. He will present Walker and Holmes with their most difficult challenge of the season. Meanwhile, Penn State’s guards must get to the second level to control Harrison, Werner and Borland. If they don’t, Penn State could have difficulty topping 100 yards.

EDGE: OHIO STATE

PENN STATE PASSING GAME vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE

PENN STATE PASSING GAME 253.5 YPG, 13.9 YPC OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE 126.0 YPG, 9.6 YPC

THE LOWDOWN Clifford didn’t have a great day against Indiana, completing only 11 of 25 passes for 179 yards and one touchdown, but the Nittany Lions still enter their game vs. Ohio State with the fourth-ranked passing game in the Big Ten. Clifford has completed 59.6 percent of his attempts for 2,450 yards, with 22 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He ranks second in the Big Ten in passing (245 ypg) and first in total offense (282.4 ypg). Despite Clifford’s solid performance in the Nittany Lions’ first 10 games, Penn State could struggle against a Buckeyes defense that has given up the fewest passing yards in the Big Ten while totaling a league-high 13 interceptions. CB Jeffrey Okudah leads the way with three interceptions, while Fuller and OLB K’Vaughn Pope have two apiece. One big reason for Ohio State’s success against the pass is that it leads the conference with 42 sacks. Young is leading the country with 13.5 sacks, while Harrison has 4.5.

KEY MATCHUPS Walker and Holmes will line up against Young, while K.J. Hamler will take on Okudah, provided the Penn State wideout is cleared to play after sitting out most of the Indiana game with what appeared to be a head or neck injury. If Walker and Holmes can’t control Young, Clifford will definitely have trouble going through his progressions. Okudah is having a breakout season and has established himself as the Buckeyes’ top cornerback. He will provide Hamler with his toughest matchup this season.

EDGE: OHIO STATE

OHIO STATE RUNNING GAME vs. PENN STATE RUN DEFENSE

OHIO STATE RUNNING GAME 287.4 YPG, 6.2 YPC PENN STATE RUN DEFENSE 75.9 YPG, 2.2 YPC

THE LOWDOWN This matchup will pit the top-ranked run defense in the Big Ten against the league’s top rushing offense. The Buckeyes have two of the Big Ten’s top five rushers in J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague. Dobbins ranks second with 1,289 yards and seven touchdowns on 183 carries, while Teague has 744 yards and seven TDs on 114 carries. QB Justin Fields is Ohio State’s third-leading rusher with 377 yards and a team-leading 10 TDs on 84 carries. Penn State’s leading tackler is OLB Micah Parsons with 75 stops, including eight tackles for loss. OLB Cam Brown is next with 56 tackles, followed by SS Garrett Taylor with 55, FS Lamont Wade with 51 and MLB Jan Johnson with 50. Penn State is third in the Big Ten with 76 TFL. DE Yetur Gross-Matos leads the way with 10.5, followed by Parsons.

KEY MATCHUPS Ohio State LT Thayer Mumford will take on Gross-Matos, while guards Jonah Jackson and Wyatt Davis will battle Penn State’s linebacker trio. Lately, Gross-Matos has struggled to generate tackles for loss, totaling only two in Penn State’s past two games. He’ll need to have more success against Mumford if the Lions are going to have a consistent performance against Ohio State’s potent running game. Jackson and Davis just might be the best pair of starting offensive guards in the Big Ten. Parsons, Brown and Johnson are about to face their toughest test of the season.

EDGE: EVEN

OHIO STATE PASSING GAME vs. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE

OHIO STATE PASSING 254.3 YPG, 13.4 YPC PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE 240.3 YPG, 11.5 YPC

THE LOWDOWN Penn State is struggling here. In its past two games, it has allowed more than 700 passing yards. It’ll face another big challenge this weekend, because the Buckeyes are ranked third in the Big Ten in passing offense. Fields has completed just under 70 percent of his attempts for 2,164 yards, with an amazing 31-1 touchdown-interception ratio. He leads the Big Ten with a pass-efficiency rating of 191.77. WR Chris Olave is the Buckeyes’ leading receiver with 37 receptions for 593 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s followed by Binjimin Victor (27 catches, 459 yards, six TDs) K.J. Hill (38 catches, 423 yards, six TDs) and Garrett Wilson (19 catches, 229 yards, four TDs). There is no other way to put it: Penn State’s pass defense has been the biggest disappointment on the team this season. The Lions have eight interceptions, with John Reid, Tariq Castro-Fields and Jaquan Brisker leading the way with two picks apiece. Penn State is third in the Big Ten in sacks with 33, including 6.5 apiece by Gross-Matos and fellow DE Shaka Toney.

KEY MATCHUPS Olave will take on Reid and Castro-Fields, while Mumford will look to keep Gross-Matos out of the backfield. Olave is the Buckeyes’ go-to receiver in the red zone; nearly a quarter of his 37 catches have been for touchdowns. Sporting an average of 16 yards per catch, he’s the Buckeyes’ best route runner and has the best hands of anyone on Ohio State’s roster. He will create matchup problems for Reid and Castro-Fields. Gross-Matos has not had much success getting to the quarterbacks in recent weeks. He must do a much better job against Mumford, because Penn State needs to get pressure on Fields.

EDGE: OHIO STATE

SPECIAL TEAMS

THE LOWDOWN The Buckeyes have the third-best punt-return game in the Big Ten, with Wilson averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Drue Chrisman averages 43.3 yards per punt, while PK Blake Haubeil has converted 8 of 10 field goal attempts, with his longest make coming from 37 yards. Penn State’s Blake Gillikin averages 42.4 yards per punt, and 26 of his 49 punts have pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line. Jake Pinegar and Jordan Stout have converted on 11 of 13 field goal attempts, including a 57-yarder by Stout. Hamler is averaging 4.52 yards per punt return and 20.67 yards per kickoff return. He’s had two touchdowns called back by penalties.

EDGE: EVEN

THIS ‘N’ THAT

THE LOWDOWN For the most part, Ohio State has dominated this series. The Buckeyes have a 20-14 advantage and have won six of their past seven games against the Nittany Lions. Penn State’s most recent win was in 2016 when it rallied for a 24-21 victory at Beaver Stadium en route to the Big Ten title. In the past two games, Penn State has squandered double-digit fourth-quarter leads, falling 39-38 at Ohio Stadium in 2017 and 27-26 last year at home.

EDGE: OHIO STATE

COACHING STAFF

THE LOWDOWN Ryan Day has yet to lose a game as Ohio State’s coach. He went 3-0 while filling in for the suspended Urban Meyer last season and is 10-0 this year. This is James Franklin’s sixth season as Penn State’s head coach. He has posted a record of 54-22 and a holds a 9-1 record this season.

EDGE: OHIO STATE

PREDICTION There’s no question in my mind that Ohio State is the No.1 team in the country. For Penn State to win, K.J. Hamler and Noah Cain need to be healthy, and the team needs to clean up its pass-defense problems. But maybe most important of all, the Lions must have complete confidence that they can get the job done. Since 2014, they have played the Buckeyes better than any team in the Big Ten. I don’t expect anything to change on Saturday. But I’m afraid that just won’t be enough.

OHIO STATE 31

PENN STATE 21

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