Penn State-Indiana Matchups: What to expect from the Lions, Hoosiers

Penn State is nearly a two-touchdown favorite for Saturday's prime-time showdown with Indiana, which suggests that oddsmakers do not believe in head coach Tom Allen's Hoosiers after a 2-2 start.

Should you?

IU opened the season with a thud, falling 34-6 at Iowa, before beating Idaho, losing to Cincinnati, and finally taking out Western Kentucky 33-31 last weekend.

Now, the Big Ten East team comes to State College.

It's time to break down the matchups to see which side might have an edge on game day.

Indiana's outcomes so far might have you thinking that the defense is a pushover, but a box score review offers a different point of view.

For example, Iowa scored on a pair of pick-sixes, and Cincinnati returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown.

The point is that the Hoosiers' defense might not be the sieve that the points-allowed column suggests that it is. Entering Saturday, IU has a top-five rush defense in the Big Ten but a pass defense that ranks No. 11.

It means that Tom Allen's crew is probably going to do what Penn State's three previous opponents attempted to do. It will stack the box and force Sean Clifford to beat it through the air while selling out to stop the run game and explosive plays. Penn State needs to fix the run part of its offense quickly, but if teams keep trying to take it away in favor of allowing hundreds of passing yards in the process, so be it. The Hoosiers are not a turnover threat on paper and don't find their way to the backfield much. Defensive lineman Ryder Anderson could prove to be a handful for the Nittany Lions' tackles, linebacker Micah McFadden is back and again a potential game-wrecker, and defensive back Raheem Layne leads Indiana with 22 tackles.

All told, this 4-3 front shouldn't stymie Penn State's offense, though it may take Mike Yurcich and Sean Clifford some time to figure out how best to pick it apart. Once they do, however, it should be all systems go, and speed and athleticism will win the day for the home side.

EDGE: PENN STATE

It's rather clear at this point that no one within the Nittany Lions' program wants to discuss the 2020 meeting between these two, and that's fine, but some of what we saw last year will apply here.

Penn State must be sure to keep quarterback Michael Penix Jr., contained at all times, because he can hurt opponents with his legs in a hurry. The passer has been rather pedestrian thus far, though, as he's completed just 55 percent of his attempts and has four touchdown to six interceptions and just a few rushing yards.

Star receiver Ty Frofogle returns and already has 21 receptions, but positionmate DJ Matthews is now out for the year with a torn ACL, which hurts the attack. Tight end Peyton Hendershot is still around and is a terror, and Stephen Carr is really good in the backfield.

Brent Pry's defense has been playing championship-caliber football of late, and it's a lot of bending but never breaking for four quarters while taking advantage of turnover opportunities. There figure to be more of those opportunities in this game, and the Lions must pounce on them. If they can, they'll coast to victory. It should be another lockdown game for the secondary while the front seven continues to thrive by playing fast, aggressive football.

EDGE: PENN STATE

--Indiana kicker Charles Campbell is perfect on the year, though all seven of his kicks have been inside of 50 yards. We'll give the Hoosiers a slight edge in that part of the matchup but give Jordan Stout and the punting game a PSU nod.

--Losing Matthews hurts the offense but it also hurts on special teams, where he already returned a punt for a touchdown prior to getting hurt.

--Watch out for Marcelino McCrary-Ball on Saturday. He plays a hybrid linebacker/safety role and will be trying to wreck the game from it.

Penn State is a double-digit favorite for a reason: It's looked and performed better than some people thought it could, and Indiana has done the opposite. This will be no cakewalk, however, and the Lions must perform well and fire on all cylinders to avoid an upset one week before going to Iowa.

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