Penn State football mailbag: James Franklin's future, Sean Clifford, more

The Wednesday Penn State football mailbag from the BWI team is back to answer your questions ahead of Saturday's showdown at Ohio State.

This week's topics include whether 6-6- or 7-5 is in the cards, our thoughts on James Franklin's longterm future with he Nittany Lions, fixing the offensive line and run game, plus plenty more.

Let's get to your questions, and remember: You can submit them weekly to us on Twittere (@BWIonRivals, @NateBauerBWI, @DavidEckert98, and @GregPickel) or through the Lions Den premium message board.

Before the questions and answers begin, we'd like to send out a thank you to our sponsor for the BWI weekly mailbag, JFQ Lending. For all of your lending needs, including great refinancing rates, make sure you visit our mailbag sponsor, JFQ Lending, and see how they can best serve you.

"Is it possible we can bring in more transfers next year to bolster the defensive line?"

Eckert: It's definitely possible, I would even say it's likely. If PJ Mustipher elects to turn pro, the Nittany Lions will likely lose three of their four starting defensive linemen this season. Add Jesse Luketa, a senior, into that equation as well, and they're going to need some help. Penn State did a really nice job in the portal this offseason and there's no reason to think that it can't do the same again.

Pickel: I don't think there's any question that Penn State will have to go back to the portal to look for help along the defensive line just as it did this past offseason with Arnold Ebiketie and Derrick Tangelo. It's too early to say who might be a preferred target, of course, but obviously, PJ Mustipher's decision to stay another year or move now will play a big part in whether the focus is equally split between defensive tackles or ends or if the interior is more of a priority.

Bauer: Anything that Penn State did this past offseason, you can bet it's going to do again moving forward in regards to the transfer portal. If there is a gap to be plugged, particularly with a focus on fit in bridging classes, if necessary, Penn State will take that approach.

It's just important to note that so much of Penn State's scholarship roster along the line is filled with younger players, some of whom didn't necessarily get the full developmental experience due to the impact of COVID through the program last year. Forced into action as a result of Penn State losing 3/4th of its starting defensive line, the reps gained and another offseason could change the perception of where that group stands going into the 2022 campaign.

"What are the issues with the o-line and how do you fix them?"

Eckert: Penn State's issues running the ball have really been surprising to me when you consider the way that the Nittany Lions finished last season. The run game was their great equalizer, and they leaned on it heavily to compensate for a passing game that had turned the ball over far too often. I assumed they'd be able to do the same this year and I was wrong. Collectively, we may have underestimated the impact that the departures of Michal Menet and Will Fries had. Whenever you ask James Franklin about the offensive line and its shortcomings, he asks for more physicality and more push. Clearly — for whatever reason — this group is not meeting the necessary threshold in that department for success. How do you fix it? I'll be honest, I have no idea. With no discernible change in the results for this group seven games in, I'm not sure Penn State has the solutions either.

Pickel: When James Franklin arrived at Penn State, the offensive line room was in such disarray that players were being flipped from one side of the line to the other for depth purposes and the scholarship count was grim. Things have balanced out there, but a combination of recruiting misses, departures, and slow development has left the Lions where they are today, which is having six, maybe seven guys, who can truly contribute at the Big Ten level while others are waiting in the wings but not ready yet. Losing Sal Wormley for the season was obviously an overlooked issue, but there is also a theme of not having the 'nasty streak' needed to win in this conference. It's unclear how that is fixed, but it certainly would help if it suddenly showed up in Columbus. Otherwise, the answer is time, and that's something Penn State fans are out of patience for with this position group, and with good reason.

Bauer: Penn State's recruiting on the offensive line has never been especially strong, in a realm that is universally acknowledged as the most dicey to evaluate at the high school level, and that has shown. I think if there is an area of doubt about what Phil Trautwein has been able to introduce at Penn State, however, it's the effectiveness of the "no talent" effort that he preaches so strongly. The short version is that it doesn't take five-star talent to play with a nasty streak, but that has been the quality James Franklin has most frequently identified as lacking up front this season.

I don't know how you change that, but, in combination with consistent and improved recruiting, that looks like the most reasonable path toward improvement that can speed up what is otherwise a long, drawn out process of development.

"What are the odds the team packs it in and we could see a 7-5 or 6-6 record?"

Eckert: To be clear, I think if Penn State did end the season with that kind of record, it would be the result of an accumulation of on-field problems rather than the team just quitting. The Nittany Lions have a quarterback who is limited, a running game that doesn't work and a defense that doesn't seem capable of stopping the run without PJ Mustipher. No matter how hard you try, those issues are pretty prohibitive. I don't think that kind of collapse is likely, but with three top-10 opponents still on the schedule I don't think it's totally impossible if Sean Clifford doesn't recover quickly.

Pickel: Despite all the problems that have popped up over the last two game weeks, Penn State still has Michigan at home, which has been a plus in the Franklin/Harbaugh era, and I'm still skeptical of Michigan State and its not-so-great pass defense. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't envision losses to Rutgers and Maryland even with all that's going on, so I'd say the odds are quite low, 10 percent or less. There are too many players who experienced last year still on the roster who never want to go through that again for me to think that they would pack it in.

Bauer: I don't think "packs it in" is in any way a fair characterization of this team given the very real circumstances that would have reasonably led it to do so last season after an 0-5 start to finish 4-5. It would have been extraordinarily easy for a lot of those guys to check out last year, and they didn't, so that should be a credit to the program as a whole.

As for this year, they're 5-2 coming off a three-week stretch that saw critical injuries sustained at critical positions, with a defense that has never once let up even in the most dispiriting situations. All of that is a long way of saying that Penn State's record will reflect its ability to play its best players at their best levels of health through the rest of the season. This doesn't have to be any more complicated than that, and I doubt it will be.

"3+ Turnovers or a more consistent run game, what gives Penn State the better chance to win the game at Ohio State?"

Eckert: This is a really good question. I suspect that Penn State will probably need a mix of both, but if you're going to make me choose one I will pick the running game. The Nittany Lion offense just isn't working right now. If they can lean on the running game for some production that's great, but it also forces Ohio State to respect the ground game which should open some space for the pass.

Pickel: When you're going to play a top-10 team with a quarterback who might be 100 percent but probably won't be, the answer to me is the running game. Penn State's defense has shown that it is capable of getting off the field, even without turnovers (though those do help of course), but it's still in for a tall task Saturday. You're going to have to outscore Ohio State to beat it in Columbus, and the only way the Lions do that is with a complimentary run game that takes some pressure off of and opens things up for the passing attack.

Bauer: I don't intend to be fatalistic here, but unless there are dramatic changes to Sean Clifford's health, I don't see an avenue for Penn State to score points with sustained, mature offensive possessions. So it's going to have to look a lot like the game that took place a couple of years ago in Columbus when Penn State created turnovers, the necessary difference this time being to capitalize on each and every opportunity that arises from them.

Penn State miraculously transforming into a ball control team isn't a path to success against Ohio State, anyway, because of how difficult it will be to keep pace with the Buckeyes' scoring. Creating turnovers both keeps the Buckeyes off the scoreboard and creates better field position for better chances at scoring for a Penn State offense desperately in need of those easier opportunities.

"Why are we not hearing any reports from the Penn State side as far as interest in working out a deal?"

Eckert: No matter what you're reading in comment sections online at the moment, I think it's pretty obvious that Penn State wants James Franklin to remain its football coach. I would not interpret the absence of those leaks to mean that there isn't interest. With that in mind, why aren't you seeing the leaks? Well, to be honest, I'm not sure that those reports would improve Penn State's negotiating position. When reports like that come out, typically it's because they were purposefully leaked to the media. If you're an NFL agent, and one of your clients is close to signing with the Cowboys but Dallas won't give him that no-trade clause he wants, you might leak to the press that he's interested in signing with the Eagles just to strengthen your position. I don't really view a declaration of interest in retaining Franklin as its football coach to be a strong play from Penn State because everyone knows that's the case anyway.

Pickel: Hopefully all of our answers here offer a bit of insight into how this process works. Penn State has signed Franklin to multiple contract extensions and has him under the current deal for years. It has never responded to outside rumors by publicly leaking what it is or is not doing behind the scenes, nor should it. There is just no benefit to doing so, in my opinion. When you're working from the position of continuing to build your program with the guy you already signed, there's no need to publicly put things out there. The assumption is that you're always working on those, and the only time to leak things is when you're actively trying to build perception or public favor to go the other way.

Bauer: I think the terms of this conversation are wildly off base. James Franklin might get a contract extension out of turning down another opportunity, if that's what it comes to, but in no way is that the point of any of this. And, really, that wasn't the point of the last time this played out, either. Institutional support is what it takes to get to the top in college football, and every program currently at the top can speak to that reality. Penn State's is, being diplomatic, halfhearted. Until Penn State as an institution is all-in on what it takes to move the program forward, Franklin isn't going to preclude himself from hearing the pitches of institutions who are all-in on what it takes to move their programs forward.

Is Penn State willing to take a hard look at itself and commit to making the necessary adjustments to compete at the highest levels? When that answer is an enthusiastic "yes" we're not having these conversations anymore.

And just so we're clear, whether Franklin stays or goes, a new coach doesn't change that fundamental proposition for the program moving forward.

"On a scale of 1-10, 1 being there is no chance CJF leaves to 10 CJF is already gone, where are you all at on that scale?"

Eckert: The vibes right now aren't great. Greg and Nate have been around much longer than I have and are probably better equipped to interpret things than me, so I will get out of the way and let you read what they have to say.

Pickel: I'd probably put it at a six right now. I don't know if James Franklin definitely wants to leave Penn State, but I am sure that this is a pivotal year for a number of reasons. High profile jobs are open, a new Penn State Athletic Director and university President are on the horizon, and he's been here eight years already. How Franklin feels about each of those three areas will ultimately decide how this thing plays out. There are no guarantee better jobs will come open in the years ahead, but there's also no certainty that those opportunities are better than the one he currently has. While intrigued to go five or lower based on the last two weeks, I think it's without question a possibility, and yet we shouldn't overlook the fact that he's endlessly answered the commitment question in a fair way, despite many fan-base objections to the contrary.

Bauer: Have you ever been offered a new job that you didn't apply for?

It's not a static experience. You go through the rollercoaster of emotions that come with every high level decision you have to make about your career, your family, and your life. You think about the possibility of what's being offered by a new suitor. You think about the work you've poured into the place you're at. You think about the things you resent about your current work environment. You think about all of the things that you don't and can't know about the new place. You think about what the impact of any decision would be on your family and personal life.

It all plays a part, and if I had to guess, James Franklin has probably experienced every number on the scale on a day-to-day basis, sometimes swinging wildly even within the course of a day. None of that answers your question, but just use it as a subtext when I say five.

"Does coach changing his agent to Jimmy Sexton necessarily mean that he is leaving after this season? Or could it be just to increase his salary by changing the contract?"

Eckert: It's important to clarify that the change took place before the season — the news only came out this week. I don't think it's a surefire indicator that he's leaving, there are a million potential reasons to change your agent. But I don't think it's a great sign.

Pickel: I'm torn between whether or not this is a big deal or just something that happens from time to time, but either way, I don't think the change should be viewed as some kind of choice that equals certain departure. It feels like we would have learned of this much sooner if that was the case. Trace Armstrong has done a lot in partnership with James Franklin, so I imagine the choice didn't come lightly, but whatever caused it, I'd advise being careful when it comes to assuming it was with an exit strategy in mind.

Bauer: It's not about his salary, contract, or benefits. He definitely wants to be paid commensurate with his record at Penn State, which is inarguably top 10 among Power Five coaches, but more than anything, he wants to win and to have as few inhibitors to that success as possible.

Who can fight that fight on his behalf most effectively and persuasively?

"This is Clifford’s third season as the starting QB. I predict the team finishes 6 - 6. How should Clifford’s tenure be viewed in the end?"

Eckert: I very much disagree with your prediction, but for the sake of answering the question, it will certainly be a mixed bag. I think many Penn State fans will feel he didn't live up to the promise he showed when he led the Nittany Lions to a Cotton Bowl victory in his first season as a starter, but he's dealt with plenty of adversity, played through injuries, and learned a different offensive coordinator's playbook in all three of his seasons as a starter. He's not perfect, but I hope Penn State fans will appreciate his impact once he's gone.

Pickel: It goes without saying that we're trying to predict the final act right after intermission, and as I said above, I don't think 6-6 is in the cards, but either way, I think we'll remember Sean Clifford as one heck of a gutsy quarterback who couldn't be relied on to be a pocket passer and pick people apart but was willing to do whatever it takes to win and worked to bring Penn State to a better place when he left it compared to when he got here. Will that show in the win/loss numbers? Maybe not, but the guy cares deeply about the school and program, which must count for something.

Bauer: I think the challenge with Clifford is that, when he's healthy and the pieces around him are in place, he's an effective college quarterback that has delivered quite a bit of success to Penn State in his three years. He's just not so good as to erase the negatives when situations go sideways for the Nittany Lions, or so durable as to withstand the abuses he's taken as a running quarterback through his career. He plays hard, he prepares even harder, and has repeatedly demonstrated his commitment to his football team and the game. He should be viewed accordingly.

"Do you think James has already checked out? Obviously, the team was not prepared for Illinois. He can't get the opponent or venue right in his press conference."

Eckert: No.

Pickel: I do not. While realizing and not arguing that those misspeaks were pretty horribly timed, I don't think he's given up on fighting for this team and program.

Bauer: No one is more distraught over how that game played out than James Franklin.

Any chance his focus is so locked in on his team and what he can do to improve it that it genuinely doesn't matter who Penn State is playing, or where it is playing, until it rectifies those issues?

It's kind of wild to me the benefit of the doubt that this guy doesn't receive from his program's own fans.

"As the season winds down, any thoughts that the younger guys get some meaningful snaps and who do you view as the candidates for it. Would love for Fashanu to get in."

Eckert: I wouldn't expect to see a ton of snaps for the guys who aren't already in the rotation just because of the opponents remaining on Penn State's schedule, and the fact that — though some of the loftier goals are probably out of the Nittany Lions' reach — they're still playing for something. Olu Fashanu is an interesting one. Jaylen Reed, Davon Townley and Kobe King are a handful of guys I'm interested in.

Pickel: Fashanu would be a fine option to see if they feel the need to make a switch up front, but I'm not sure we'll see it. There's also a long way to go until the season winds down. That said, wouldn't mind seeing Landon Tengwall get his feet wet in November if the situation allows for it, and some more reps for Harrison Wallace III at receiver feels like a good idea, too.

Bauer: I think Jordan van den Berg could make an appearance given the circumstances there. I'm not sure if the offensive line has the flexibility to allow it or that there will be many comfortable wins for Penn State the rest of the way.

"What defaults to being acceptable? Have we the fans reached that point because the program is stalled and the horizon looks murky?

I remember when the talk around here was beat Ohio State every couple of years and compete for a Big Ten Championship. When does anyone think that can possibly be on the radar?"

Eckert: Every fan is going to have their own idea of what is acceptable, and some of those are going to be more rational than others. What I would say is this: Think about where you had this team pegged preseason, and consider whether that outcome is still on the table. If it is, then great, use that as the benchmark, not the disappointment you're feeling that Penn State failed to capitalize on its 5-0 start that involved some overperforming in the first place.

As for your second question, I have a couple of thoughts. The first is that Penn State's windows of opportunity to do the things you're talking about come in seasons when it plays Ohio State at home, to me. Like it or not, Ohio State is going to be more talented than Penn State just about every year, and asking PSU to go and win a road game in Columbus knowing that is the case is pretty unrealistic, to me. On a more positive note, I think that the new transfer rule provides an opportunity to rebuild very quickly and turn seasons where the cupboard looks sort of empty into something more. If the Nittany Lions can have success there again this offseason and address some of their needs, they could cover up some of their obvious roster flaws.

Pickel: There's just no way to rationalize a home loss to Illinois was a 24.5-point favorite. So that's obviously below the line, but I'd argue that 8-4 this regular season is acceptable. Why? Go back and look at the preseason projections for this program. The 5-0 start raised expectations quickly for a group that everyone knew was very light on depth at key spots and facing a brutal schedule. Illinois shouldn't have been a loss but maybe Wisconsin shouldn't have been a win. Regardless, there are many who think this is a Big Ten title caliber team if Clifford and Mustipher are healthy for Iowa and Illinois, and beyond. Maybe they're right. But, we're now seeing why so many record predictions were what they were. It just took half the season for two of the biggest possible cracks -- no backup quarterback situation to speak of and a light defensive line rotation -- to show up. As for when Penn State can get back into the Big Ten title conversation, it's college football. If the 2016 team could run the table and do it, then any year is in play. Obviously, next year will be tough with a lot of roster turnover expected, but I don't see a major downward trend on the horizon. The answer is what it always is, though: When can Penn State beat Ohio State and Michigan in the same season while also not avoiding another conference slipup?

Bauer: Operate like Ohio State, then expect those outcomes. Penn State doesn't, so it shouldn't.

Ohio State has three losses to Big Ten teams, total, since 2016. At Penn State is one, at Iowa and at Purdue are the other two. No one in the Big Ten East has done it since Penn State five years ago and Michigan hasn't done it since Ohio State went 6-7 in 2011.

An impossible climb? No. Not necessarily, but it's time to have a conversation about what is and isn't a realistic expectation for Penn State football in relation to its brethren to the west.

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