Penn State football mailbag: Clifford, Roberson, the playoff and more

Illinois week is here, and as we wait for the Penn State Nittany Lions to retake the field, it's time for our Wednesday staff mailbag presented by JFQ Lending.

This Wednesday, Nate Bauer, David Eckert, and Greg Pickel field your burning questions regarding Ta'Quan Roberson, Sean Clifford, the College Football Playoff and more.

Let's get to your questions, and remember: You can submit them weekly to us on Twittere (@BWIonRivals, @NateBauerBWI, @DavidEckert98, and @GregPickel) or through the Lions Den premium message board.

Before the questions and answers begin, we'd like to send out a thank you to our sponsor for the BWI weekly mailbag, JFQ Lending. For all of your lending needs, including great refinancing rates, make sure you visit our mailbag sponsor, JFQ Lending, and see how they can best serve you.

"Can Penn State use the Illinois game to rest players for Ohio State, or is this still a game they need to play everyone all game to win?"

Eckert: Could they rest players and get away with it? Probably. Will they? No. Doing so would fly in the face of the "1-0" culture that Franklin has worked to create during his time at Penn State. It's not just lip service when he says that. It's real.

Pickel: We've received a lot of questions along these lines this week, and actually in some weeks' past as well following the very physical Wisconsin game. Illinois is not very good, but you'll never see Penn State willingly sit players just for the sake of doing so. If the medical staff says no go, then it'll be a no go. If a guy is questionable, he'll be worked out prior to the game, and then a decision will be made. But, there will never be a situation to start the week where a guy could play but is simply sat because the opponent is deemed to be an 'easy' one to beat.

Bauer: Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting at all that Illinois doesn't have its own challenges and deficiencies this season. But, if I'm Bret Bielema, I'm pushing this as a major opportunity to beat the No. 7 ranked team in the country, at their place, as something of a springboard for an otherwise unremarkable season for the Illini.

Penn State is vulnerable if Sean Clifford isn't playing, but strong performances by the defense and special teams units, which are still mostly in tact even after the injury losses of the Iowa game, should be enough to win fairly comfortably. Unless Penn State's offense is going to produce a lot of points, or is aided by a bonus score or two from those other two units, I'm not sure I can envision the conditions in which the Nittany Lions can jump out to a big enough lead in which the reserves will enter the game early.

"Who makes the playoff…a 1-loss ACC Champ Pitt, or a 2-loss B1G 10 Champ PSU. I know there are a ton of ‘what if’s’ but intriguing."

Eckert: This is a tough one. I'm not sure the committee has to worry so much about needing to make this call because I think it's going to be very tough for Penn State to get into the Big Ten title game if it loses again. But, to answer the question, I think the committee would probably lean Pitt's way. We've still never seen a two-loss team get into the field. I know Pitt's name doesn't exactly carry the same clout that Clemson's does, but Clemson has played some pretty awful schedules in the ACC and still gotten in as a one-loss champ. I could be wrong, and it certainly depends on a lot of external factors that are impossible for us to identify right now, but I think Pitt would get the nod in this hypothetical.

Pickel: This is a fun mid-October question, because it's been awhile since the ACC looked as wide-open as it does now, and by the way, who could have guessed that the Panthers would be a favorite opposite the Tigers coming into this weekend, even if the game is at Heinz Field? I've debated this internally for awhile and have made multiple arguments in support of either side. Based on the committee's history, a one-loss Power-5 champ is getting in over a two-loss team from any conference. But, what if the ACC is deemed to be so bad that history becomes irrelevant? It's possible, and if it was going to happen during any season, it would certainly be this one. Still, I'd bet today that a one-loss ACC champ gets in over a two-loss Big Ten team, even if we all agree that this conference appears to be such a meat-grinder that a multi-loss team from it might be more deserving of the CFP slot.

Bauer: I think the one thing that Penn State would have going for it in that scenario is the fact that the CFP committee is going to put weight on the fact that Clifford was out for three quarters of the game, at No. 3 Iowa, in a game the Nittany Lions lost by three points. So, I'm not going to say that Penn State doesn't get dinged there, but I think the reality of a hypothetical six more wins for this group including two of three of at Ohio State, Michigan, and at Ohio State, plus a win in Indianapolis for the conference championship against, presumably, an Iowa team that can still win out against its garbage schedule, would probably be enough for strong consideration.

"Sean is a no-go for Saturday?"

Eckert: *Insert shrug emoji here.* My guess would be he doesn't play, but that is only a guess and nothing more.

Pickel: I would think the collective gut of the Penn State fan base and those who cover the team would all agree that it is extremely unlikely that Clifford is in pads for Saturday's contest, but it's worth noting that it has nothing to do with the opponent. If he could play, I think he would, but it doesn't sound like he's ready to yet, even if he's doing everything he can to be ready, as James Franklin said on Tuesday. That said, we'll all be waiting until Saturday morning until there is official word.

Bauer: I'll know more Wednesday afternoon when the media is invited to catch 20 minutes of practice, but if I had to make a pick right now, I'd guess he's not dressed for Saturday's game.

"PSU has 1 shutout this season, they have a couple more teams on the schedule that they could potentially repeat that. Do you see PSU getting another shutout, and how does coaching mentality play into that happening as in “go out there and shut X team out” vs “go out and execute”?

Eckert: I talked about this a little bit on the BWI Daily Podcast with T-Frank on Tuesday. Certainly, Illinois is a team that Penn State can shut out. I just don't really think that's a fair expectation because it requires you to play essentially perfect football across the board. Your defense has to be great, you can't turn the ball over on offense and you've got to move the ball well enough to avoid giving your defense a short field, plus you've got to play well on special teams. It's difficult to shut out your opposition even when that opposition isn't very good. So, if you're asking me to predict whether I think Penn State will get another shutout this season, I would say probably not — not because I don't think the defense is good, just because I think it's an unlikely outcome in general. Certainly Penn State's coaching staff would love to shut out the opposition, but I'm not sure it's something they emphasize.

Pickel: Illinois was just shut out at home against Wisconsin last weekend, so it's fair to think that it could happen against the Fighting Illini, but the second- and third-team defense have not looked overly punishing when they've been on the field previously this year. For that reason, I'm going to say no, but let me also leave no doubt when I say that Penn State's staff wants its defense, no matter who is on the field, to go out and execute at the highest level, which can always lead to a shutout.

Bauer: The difference between a shut out and giving up fewer than 10 points usually comes down to the combination of a great defensive performance, completely inept competition, and honestly, a little bit of luck that an opponent can't hit a field goal when the opportunity arises. Most teams, even bad ones, even against a really good defense and special teams, are going to get in position to put at least a field goal on the scoreboard during the course of a game. So context matters here, too. Is Penn State a few scores up in the fourth quarter when that field goal opportunity comes for the opponent? Does the opponent forgo the three points because it has to score touchdowns?

I think the conditions are probably right for Penn State to be able to pitch another shutout this season, particularly in home games against a couple of defensive-minded teams in Illinois and Rutgers. I just don't know that I'd call it likely.

"% chance Christian Veilleux starts against Illinois?"

Eckert: I'm up to about 10 percent after what James Franklin said Tuesday about that being a competitive situation. I don't really think it's happening, but it's an outcome we have to consider based on what has been said.

Pickel: I was tempted to go with zero, but James Franklin said on Tuesday that the gap between Roberson and Veilleux isn't as wide as it should be, and that prohibits me from doing that. I still think it's extremely unlikely, so I'll go with five percent. Keep in mind that he hasn't played in a game against anyone, let alone a Big Ten team (albeit a struggling one) since 2019. We could argue that he's going to have to at some point if he plans to see meaningful playing time in State College, I just don't think this Saturday is the day he becomes the starter, even if for only a game.

Bauer: My head might be playing tricks on me, but I think it's probably more realistic than first glance would suggest. One of my understandings during the preseason, real or not, was that Veilleux showed enough flashes to make it a real competition with Roberson for that backup job. That potential wasn't enough necessarily to overcome the hurdles attached to learning a college level offense for the first time, let alone what Mike Yurcich wants to do, but, seven weeks later, could the calculus have changed enough for Veilleux to give it a run (again, presuming Clifford is out)?

Sure.

"What are the chances that Micah Bowens would have been the back-up to Clifford if he stayed?"

Eckert: Well, the last time we got to see Penn State's depth chart — which was last December, about a month before Bowens entered the transfer portal — Roberson had beat him out for the third string QB spot. It doesn't sound like the Nittany Lions are overly thrilled with the progress that Roberson has made since then, so maybe Bowens could have overtaken him this offseason, but it's difficult to say. It's possible, but my gut says probably not.

Pickel: It's the great unknown that we'll never know, of course, but I wasn't overly impressed by what I had seen from Bowens during his short time in State College, but clearly Oklahoma saw enough between that and his recruitment to want him to join its equally thin quarterback room. Would he have beaten out Roberson? I'm not in love with the take and think I'd feel more strongly one way or the other after we see how he performs this weekend, but I'm definitely closer to saying 'yes' than I think I would have been back in, say, May.

Bauer: That was not my impression.

"Setting the Clifford injury aside (because we can't really know when he'll be back) what do you all think is a realistic ceiling for this team the remainder of the season?"

Eckert: I think the ceiling is 10-2. That's what makes the Iowa outcome so tough, because Penn State lost a game by virtue of circumstance to a team it is much better than and now you've got to go win a game in Columbus to keep your conference title and College Football Playoff hopes alive. With a healthy Clifford that's a big ask. Without a healthy Clifford I just don't see it happening. I think, based on how last season went, most Penn State fans would be happy with 10-2 and a NY6 bowl game, and that seems like the best available outcome to me at the moment.

Pickel: I think a realistic ceiling is a New Year's Six bowl that is not the College Football Playoff, and that's based solely on the fact that I've said in a number of spaces that I can see this team finishing 10-2 with its only other loss at Ohio State. As for the floor? To me, it's still a Jan. 1 bowl in Florida, either the Citrus or Outback, at this point in time. I don't see the Lions dropping games opposite Illinois, Maryland, or Rutgers, and I think Michigan at home is a win. That leaves the Michigan State trip at the end of November, which kinda feels like a toss-up, but the Spartans have a bad pass defense, and if Clifford is healthy, I don't see the Lions losing in East Lansing for that very reason.

Bauer: Just looking at the games left on Penn State's schedule, even with Clifford, I think obviously Ohio State on the road is a tough ask for this team. The question becomes, if he's out for Illinois, and Ohio State, and Maryland, the challenge gets that much greater if he's in doubt for Michigan or Michigan State. Respectfully, given Penn State's defense and special teams, you can probably get away with low-20s scoring against Illinois and maybe Maryland and Rutgers. You almost certainly can't against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. His return and effectiveness upon it will dictate so much.

"How short of a leash will Roberson be on? Reports from practice last week weren’t promising. If the offense struggles to score in the first half, I have a hard time seeing Roberson coming back out in the second half."

Eckert: It's certainly possible that we see this kind of scenario play out, but I don't necessarily think it's likely. If Roberson is the guy who starts the game, the staff will have reasons for it. It's not like it's a flip of a coin type of thing. They will have to find enough problems with his performance to override the information that they used to make the decision in the first place. Let's not forget that Christian Veilleux is a true freshman who hasn't taken a snap at the collegiate level yet. Maybe Roberson does get hooked, but I don't think that's going to be the case if Penn State is up 14-3 at halftime just because he misses a few throws.

Pickel: It's another question in this batch that I've very much gone back and forth on. I'll settle on this: The game plan should be tailored to maximize Roberson's strengths while also putting him in as comfortable of a situation as possible, and that means the run game has to get going. So, I think Roberson should have a reasonable runway to run things as the coaches have designed for him, but it goes without saying that winning is a must, so if Penn State has 10 points or less at the half and is not moving the ball whatsoever, then maybe you'll see a change. That said, the staff would have to feel really good about the switch having desired results to do so. All told, I think it's longer than many fans both realize and would want if things go poorly early on, but I don't think there's much of a choice.

Bauer: Sorry, but that just hasn't been Franklin's MO through his career to pull a starting quarterback for performance issues. We all watched Sean Clifford struggle last year, right? That was an unmitigated train wreck, but it took until the fourth game and what felt like a million turnovers before Franklin gave him the hook for Levis. So, no, I don't really think the leash will be short for whoever Penn State decides is best suited to start this game.

"Any chance PSU simplifies their offense and game plan ahead of Saturday’s game or will Yurcich implement the full playbook?"

Eckert: I don't expect that Yurcich will try to force Roberson's game into the offensive framework he uses for Clifford, if that makes sense. There's no use in trying to pretend a quarterback is someone he's not. He has different strengths, different weaknesses, and, likely, a smaller subset of the playbook to work from.

Pickel: I wouldn't expect to see the full playbook, as that suggests Roberson or Veilleux can run the offense just like Clifford can, which we can all safely say is not the case. But they aren't going to go into a shell, either. There is no further proof needed of that than Yurcich dialing up five-wide formations in Penn State territory and having the backup throw out of his own end zone in a loud road environment.

Bauer: I'm going to defer to Thomas Frank Carr on this one because he sees it better than I can, but initially at Iowa, and according to the players and Franklin himself, they attempted to keep things the same offensively when Roberson first came in the game in the middle of the second quarter before reversing course and limiting the plan in the second half. My guess would be that Penn State, given Franklin's history in situations that I would call similar to this one, is going to be extremely conservative in its approach. They know that winning the field position battle and relying on defense and special teams is probably enough to get a win against this particular Illinois team, so keeping turnovers and backing into bad spots at an absolute minimum is going to be of paramount importance.

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