Column: Why Penn State's 2021 class is better than you think

There’s no debate when it comes to which topic dominated our message board more than any other year. That same topic, the pandemic, dominated just about everything in our lives, so it’s understandable and expected. But just like every other college football message board, recruiting wasn’t far behind, and boy, just about everyone had an opinion on Penn State’s recruiting class this year.

With just 13 commitments throughout most of the fall, everyone wanted to know what went wrong for the Nittany Lions. At one point, the class ranked as low as No. 38 in the Rivals Team Rankings. Well, I’m here to tell ya that not much has really changed for the Nittany Lions. Sure, it wasn’t a perfect year, but this class really isn’t all that different from the last one they signed.

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To understand why it ranked so low for the longest time, you have to understand how the rankings work. Most of you that read me everyday know this, but for those of you checking in for signing day, let me explain. One thing most people don’t know is that the 20 highest-rated players in the class are all that is counted. With the majority of recruiting classes reaching that 20 person threshold, it ensures that a class of 28 players won’t necessarily rank higher than a class of 21 just because of volume. Rivals also has a bonus point system for players that rank within the Rivals250. Obviously, five-stars at the top of the list get you more points than No. 243.

Now that you know those two things, would you like to guess what this year’s class, when averaged out with all the other classes above it, would rank on Rivals if Penn State had the scholarships to sign 20 prospects? It would rank 17th currently, which is just two spots below where they finished last year. In fact, the average points per player commitment in 2021 is 97.3, substantially higher than last year's class, which was 80.1.

Did people complain about the 2020 class? Sure, you’ll always find fans that expect better, but it paled in comparison to the malcontent that we saw this year.

Small recruiting classes aren’t unique to Penn State either. Just two years ago, Ohio State’s class of 17 commitments ranked 21st overall, and that included five-star defensive lineman Zach Harrison. Just one year prior, Michigan finished 24th with 19 commitments. Even Clemson finished all the way down at No. 22 in 2017. I'm not saying this class is on par with the Buckeyes and Tigers. Rather, classes regularly look worse than they are when you simply don't have the scholarships to give. It's a flaw in the ranking system more than the class itself.

Also, while James Franklin and his staff didn't land the five-star players that fans covet, they’ve also only signed three Rivals five-stars since taking over. This year, out of the 26 five-stars on Rivals, only three have committed to teams that haven’t made the College Football Playoff yet. You can argue that recruits are how you reach the playoff, but until you break through and make the top four, landing those top prospects is a lot easier said than done. Michigan State, Oregon and Washington all got over the line without the stacked classes we see elsewhere. Penn State almost got there, too, so it can be done.

With that all said, I’m not here to claim that things went perfect this year. The one area where fans do have a right to be upset is within Pennsylvania. Missing out on Nolan Rucci - who was promoted to a five-star two weeks ago - and safety Derrick Davis Jr., stings. In my eyes, the staff had to land at least one of those two players, and I think Franklin would tell you that, too. We all know Rucci’s ties to Penn State by now, while Davis took nearly a dozen visits to Penn State over a three-year span. Defensive end Elijah Jeudy is another interesting player that it feels like they should’ve done better with considering his ties to Deion Barnes. At the same time, if someone's heart is set on heading south from the very beginning, even the best recruiters can only do so much to change that.

There are a few other Pennsylvania players that I don’t fault the staff much with. Missing out on St. Joseph’s Prep prospects Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the process hurt, no doubt, but Penn State was also never really considered a true favorite with either. They did camp at Penn State, and they attended one game each, but it’s not like the Lions ever had a true lead with either. Penn State’s lack of producing NFL quarterbacks was to blame with McCord more so than individual coaches not getting the job done. It’s no coincidence that he’s attending a school that’s been on a roll at that position recently. Also, someone like Elliot Donald, who’s the nephew of one of the greatest Pitt players of all-time, was never coming to Penn State.

The good news for both fans and the staff alike is that the Class of 2022 is showing signs of being one of the staff’s best since 2018, although I’ll caution that the same reason you shouldn’t overthink Penn State’s low ranking in 2021 is the same reason you shouldn’t put too much stock into where that class stands currently. Third in the nation is great, but that'll even out as kids commit elsewhere.

But with all seven 2022 commitments now holding a four-star rating, four of whom reside within Pennsylvania, it is encouraging to see that the staff’s issues in its home state appear to be on the mend. With 13 four-star prospects in the Keystone State next year - the most since 2006 - Franklin and his staff have an opportunity to bounce back in a major way.

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