Column: Lessons still to be learned

Using the past to try to predict the future, particularly in sports, is futile.

While historical records are fine for light conversation, and might even suggest levels of competitiveness between two programs over a span of time, what actually takes place between the lines when the whistle is blown is utterly independent of past performances. That’s not to say that stats and records are useless, certainly there’s a place for context, but an actual competition takes on its own, unique life.

In examining what’s taken place with the Penn State men’s basketball team through the course of its 2016-17 campaign, however, there are a few things worth keeping in mind in regards to the program’s recent history

Dropping a final seconds, 71-70 heartbreaker to visiting Ohio State Tuesday night at the Bryce Jordan Center, the Nittany Lions dipped to 6-11 against conference competition on the season. It sent Penn State to 13th place in the Big Ten, leaving a final game at Iowa Sunday afternoon to wrap up the conference slate before heading to Washington D.C. and the Big Ten Tournament next week.

The loss had implications beyond the standings, though.

Remarkably, in 11 conference losses this season, Tuesday night’s marked the sixth time that the Nittany Lions fell by a single possession or in overtime. In 17 Big Ten contests, Penn State has played seven such games, coming out on the wrong side of the ledger a whopping 85 percent of the time.

Beginning with the third game of the season, the Nittany Lions lost 72-69 at Michigan, edged Minnesota 52-50 at the BJC, fell on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer against Indiana, 78-75, slugged through a triple-overtime, 110-102 loss at Indiana, sleepwalked to a 70-68 loss against Rutgers, pushed Purdue to overtime but still lost, 74-70, and finally wound up on the wrong side of Jae’Sean Tate’s spinning, off-glass layup Tuesday night.

This is uncanny.

To this degree, I haven’t found a comparable frequency of similar losses in the program’s recent history. In the Big Ten itself, no other team comes close; only Nebraska’s seven single-possession games are with Penn State’s, the Cornhuskers holding a 4-3 record in such games.

For Penn State specifically, there is some instruction to be had from its 2009-10 season, however.

Coming off an NIT title the year before, the cadre of juniors that included Talor Battle, Jeff Brooks, David Jackson and Andrew Jones, with the addition of Tim Frazier, struggled mightily. Against relatively high expectations, the Nittany Lions dropped 12 Big Ten games before finally earning a single win in the conference at Northwestern.

En route to a 3-15 conference record and a tremendously disappointing 11-20 mark overall, the Nittany Lions lost eight games by a single possession or in overtime. Most notably, the Nittany Lions had a stretch of three out of four losses under just such circumstances.

By the end of the season, the Nittany Lions had a -4.7 points per game scoring margin in the Big Ten, sending the group back to the drawing board for its senior campaign.

That campaign, quite clearly, went much better for Penn State.

Though finishing just 9-9 in the Big Ten, the NIttany Lions managed a 3-3 mark in our previously described criteria. Two other wins in the conference were by four points, and the Nittany Lions eventually finished with a -1.0 scoring differential - the best mark for the program in the time since - en route to an NCAA Tournament appearance.

What does this mean for Penn State’s 2017-18 season?

On a per-game basis, the answer is plainly nothing.

A group that has ushered in significant minutes and contributions from three freshmen in Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins will need to learn from the experiences of this season. Accountable for 40.8 percent of the team’s total minutes played this season, that youth will need similar maturation from veterans Shep Garner, Payton Banks, Josh Reaves and Julian Moore if a similar trajectory is to take place.

Garner, for his part, insisted following a 20 point effort Tuesday night that so many close games this season has indicated an improved level of play for the program - even if the results have been disappointing.

“I think we're playing great. Sometimes teams make certain plays and we don't. That's just what it comes down to,” he said. “But they're all learning experiences. We take every game as a learning experience, win or loss. So we'll come back to practice and look at the film and get better, learn from this and get ready for Iowa.“

The question, of course, is what actual lessons have been learned for this group when similar circumstances seem to repeat themselves so consistently?

Whether in allowing a coast-to-coast, last-second shot against the likes of Ohio State and Indiana, or falling in overtime against Indiana and Purdue, that the Nittany Lions have found themselves waking up in the ‘L’ column the morning after otherwise solid performances has been an admittedly hurtful experience for head coach Patrick Chambers and his team. Noting how much has been invested in terms of work and effort among his Nittany Lions, Chambers that such hard work would go unrewarded.

Still, in a season of stomach-punch losses that might have caused lesser-willed teams to throw in the towel completely, an appreciation for what it will take moving forward seems to be in the process of being gained.

“Mostly it's defending and rebounding. That's what's going to get it done in these close games,” said Garner, asked for a takeaway from this year’s lessons. “I think in the Big Ten there's a lot of possession basketball, so the more stops you get, the better chances you have at winning those close games. That's what it's going to come down to, getting stops.”

With the clock nearly expired on the 2016-17 season, whether those lessons are actually learned and put to positive use is something Penn State fans aren’t likely to find out until next season.