BWI Staff Predictions: Rutgers

Penn State won its first game of the season last weekend, beating a 2-4 Michigan team in Ann Arbor.

Now, the Nittany Lions will face another 2-4 team on the road in Rutgers, with kickoff set for 12 p.m. eastern time.

We give our predictions below.

Penn State didn’t “find” the formula for a win last weekend at Michigan, but rather finally executed the formula it spent all season messing up. By not handing the ball to their opponent so frequently, they got out of their own way and let the Wolverines make the mistakes that created the environment for the first win of the season.

The approach should and will be the same against a Rutgers team that isn’t flashy but plays hard. Keep possession and break a few tackles against one of PFF’s lowest-graded tackling teams in the Power Five, and force Rutgers to pass the ball, and Penn State can get a second win. Don’t, and it won’t.

Penn State: 30

Rutgers: 20

With the way Penn State’s offensive line performed against Michigan, dominating physically at the point of attack, plus the fact Sean Clifford played his cleanest game of the season, Penn State enters its game with Rutgers with its best opportunity to put together a balanced offensive attack. Rutgers has one of the two worst defenses in the Big Ten, allowing 430.5 yards of total offense per game - 170.3 YPG rushing and 260.2 YPG passing. Rutgers’ defense ranks last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing 35.7 PPG.

I believe there's a legitimate chance for Penn State’s offense to leave Piscataway with over 450 yards of total offense and 35 or more points on the scoreboard. That’s if the offense comes prepared to play.

Defensively, Penn State matches up well with Rutgers’ offense. With Rutgers’ QB Noah Vedral questionable, Penn State can focus on controlling Rutgers’ running game with Isaih Pacheco. If the Lions can limit Pacheco to under 100 yards rushing, Brent Pry’s defense has a chance to make Rutgers one-dimensional, forcing the Scarlet Knights to throw the ball more than they want. I think Penn State’s offense and defense puts it all together Saturday.

Penn State: 35

Rutgers: 16

Neither Penn State nor Rutgers has had a COVID-related cancellation, so both of these teams are getting set to play their seventh game in seven weeks. That would seemingly favor the deeper team, i.e., the Lions. But their depth in several key areas – LB, RB, CB – has steadily diminished. Because of that, and because Greg Schiano’s rebuild looks to be ahead of schedule, this is an iffy pick. But I’m going with PSU. Even with all their attrition, the Lions have stockpiled more talent than most of their opponents, and it’s finally starting to show.

Penn State: 31

Rutgers: 27

Welp, here we are. Six games in and not a single prediction has been correct. That’s impressive folks. Anyone can pick a winner against the spread, but to not pick a single game correctly straight-up takes skill. With Penn State now coming off its first win of the season, I’m being blamed as the jinx for their five-game slide to start the season. It’s understandable. I’m starting to think I was the jinx, too.

But have no fear, as this is the week the streak is coming to an end. Weather forecasters, who are also known for incredibly accurate predictions, are calling for a monsoon in North Jersey tomorrow, and although that should favor Penn State considering Rutgers’ struggles on both its offensive and defensive lines, I’ll channel my inner Nostradamus and take the great and power Scarlet Knights to beat the Nittany Lions for the first time ever at the birthplace of college football, better known as SHI Stadium.

Rutgers: 23

Penn State: 17

In the first season of Greg Schiano’s return to the helm of the Rutgers program, it’s clear that the Scarlet Knights are to be respected. They are not the automatic walkover they have been since joining this conference. And, while Penn State fans will often turn their noses up at the mere suggestion of any kind of rivalry with Rutgers, this is a game that the Scarlet Knights always get up for.

Rutgers can credit turnovers for both of the games it has won this season. In week one, Michigan State somehow managed to give the ball away seven times against the Scarlet Knights. While not as dramatic, the Scarlet Knights also won the turnover battle last week when they beat Purdue. Rutgers, like Penn State, is prone to giving the ball away, with both programs averaging over two turnovers per game. I know you might be sick of hearing me harp on this, but if Penn State can hang onto the football as it did last week, it will be difficult for the Nittany Lions to find a way to lose this one.

That’s because, regardless of Rutgers’ improvements — which should be applauded — Penn State is still much, much better on paper. It moves the ball more effectively and it has a better defense. Penn State should win this game, unless it beats itself.

Penn State: 34

Rutgers 17

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