BWI Staff Predictions: Nebraska

Penn State didn't expect to be 0-3 heading into tomorrow's trip to Lincoln, but now the Nittany Lions find themselves on the edge of missing out on a bowl game just four games into the season. Can this be the game that rights the ship for Penn State?

We give our predictions below.

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Your guess is, at this point, very much as good as mine when it comes to predicting the outcome of a Penn State game. Genuinely, I thought I knew who and what this particular Penn State team was even after its loss at Indiana, and again after losing to Ohio State. Relatively speaking, I saw what I had expected. But last week's performance by the Nittany Lions against Maryland threw me completely. It was a level of communication dysfunction and a breakdown in effort beyond anything I might have imagined of this team, with or without its personnel challenges.

Now that we have that out of the way, I’m taking Nebraska, but with no conviction behind that pick. I already have no clue what to expect from Nebraska, the Cornhuskers suffering from their own brand of upheaval and inconsistency at the quarterback position. Add to that the reality that I feel unable to gauge what to expect from not only Penn State, but also its opponent, and my intrigue ahead of Saturday is especially high.

When it comes to Penn State, though, I'm going to need to see some reversals of its performance last weekend before I can begin to think I have a read on them that isn't seemingly harsh. Because, as it stands, Penn State can’t stop anyone defensively and shows no signs of life offensively. Combine that with a barrage of turnovers, while getting none for themselves, and this is a Penn State team that I just can’t pick at home or on the road.

And don't just take my word for it. Let Sean Clifford be your guide, at least for the time being.

"We talk about the extra buy-in, and we talk about being better, and we talk about what type of football team we are," Clifford said last Saturday night. "I mean, it's very apparent what type football team we are. We are an 0-3, poor performing football team currently, and we need to change that. There's no ifs, ands, or buts. We got to figure it out, because it's unacceptable to ourselves, the program, to the coaches, to the fans. It's unacceptable. So we've got to figure this out."

Nebraska: 27

Penn State: 24

With Journey Brown and Noah Cain both out for the season, the top priority for Kirk Ciarrocca has to be finding a way to utilize Devyn Ford, Caziah Holmes and Keyvone Lee that allows Penn State to put a balanced offensive attack on the field. With the struggles that Penn State’s defense has experienced in its first three games against Indiana [36-36], Ohio State [25-38], and Maryland [19-35] with explosive scoring plays, it’s imperative for Penn State’s offense to get its running game fully involved to try and take the burden somewhat off of quarterback Sean Clifford.

Bluntly, it is a losing proposition for Clifford to be Penn State's top rusher. That is especially true with the fact that two freshmen wide receivers are now starting for the Nittany Lions. Parker Washington [5-10, 205] at the slot-WR position and KeAndre Lambert-Smith [6-1, 185] at the X-WR position.

Penn State’s longest run this season is a 35-TD run by Clifford in the opening game against Indiana. He has rushed for 150 yards on 52 carries [2.9 YPC] and his only rushing touchdown was that score against the Hoosiers. If Clifford continues at that same pace, he could end up having close to 160 rushing attempts, and that would be a disaster.With Cain and Brown sidelined, Ford is Penn State’s second leading rusher with 141 yards on 37 carries [3.8 YPC] with one rushing TD. Combined, Holmes and Lee have just 21 carries for 83 yards [3.95 YPC] with no rushing TDs. That’s just two rushing touchdowns in Penn State’s first three games this season, with only one of those rushing TDs coming from a Penn State running back. In Penn State’s final four regular season games of the 2019 season against Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State, and Rutgers, Brown alone ran for 391 yards on 62 carries [6.3 YPC] and had seven rushing touchdowns. So it is not hard to realize why after three games this season, Penn State’s opponents have no respect for Penn State’s running game.

Last season, Clifford ran just 116 times for just a little over 400 yards in basically 11 games. That’s because he was limited with his play on the back half of the schedule with a series of shoulder and knee injuries. Those injuries caused Clifford to miss almost three quarters of the game against Ohio State and all of Rutgers the next week. Even when Penn State played Memphis in the Cotton Bowl, Clifford struggled physically and seemed to be at less than 100-percent.

If Penn State hopes to bring some balance to its offensive attack on Saturday against Nebraska, Ford, Holmes and Lee have to become a much bigger part of the running game. Nebraska’s run defense, just like Penn State’s running game, has struggled so far this season. The Cornhuskers’ run defense ranks 10th in the Big Ten allowing [181.5 YPG] and [4.2 YPC]. Let’s see if Penn State’s offensive line can open some holes and if Ford, Holmes and Lee can become a major part of Penn State’s running game. In my mind, that is essential if the Nittany Lions hope to win their first game of the season.

Defensively, both Penn State’s run and pass defense need to stop letting opponents produce explosive plays. In the game against Maryland, the Terrapins did not run an offensive play in the red zone. The Terrapins’ four offensive touchdowns came on passes of 62, 42 and 34 yards and a 38 run by Maryland’s running back Jake Funk. Penn State’s defense will have to be tough against the run because the Cornhuskers enter tomorrow's game against the Nittany Lions with the No. 2 ranked run offense in the Big Ten averaging [217 YPG] and [5.5 YPC] with three rushing TDs. Nebraska’s two quarterbacks, Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey, have combined for 316 of the Cornhuskers’ 434 rushing yards in its first two games against Ohio State and Northwestern on 43 carries [7.34 YPC]. Control Martinez and McCaffrey and you control Nebraska’s running game. But that’s not easy because Martinez and McCaffrey are superb at running the read option, making Penn State's challenge especially difficult.

One element of Nebraska’s offense that could make that task easier for Penn State’s defense is the fact the Cornhuskers have essentially been one-dimensional on offense. Nebraska’s pass offense ranks 11th in the Big Ten and Martinez and McCaffrey have completed just 40 of 65 pass attempts for [189.0 YPG] and just [9.45 YPC] with zero touchdowns. Sophomore wideout Wan’dale Robinson is the Cornhuskers' leading receiver with 10 receptions for 81 yards [8.1 YPC]. If ever Penn State’s pass defense can get limit explosive plays this season, it should be tomorrow against Nebraska.

For as frustrating and confounding as the first three games have been this season, I think that partially changes tomorrow against Nebraska. But it won’t be easy.

Penn State: 20

Nebraska: 14

It’s hard to read this team’s mood. Are the Nittany Lions hungry to turn things around or eager just to get this strange, haunted season over with and start pointing toward what will hopefully be a more conventional campaign in 2021? I don’t know, either, but I do think that for the third time in four games this year, Penn State will field the more talented team. I also think, stubbornly maybe, that its talent will matter at some point.

Penn State: 27

Nebraska: 24

Both of these teams are winless still, but if you’ve watched Nebraska, they’re not playing all that bad. I know many of you watched the Cornhuskers have some success against Ohio State in the first half of their season opener. Sure, the second half was a romp, but Adrian Martinez showed in that game that he can be a problem for linebackers. From what I know about Luke McCaffrey, he’s good with his feet, too, so that’s worrisome if you’re a Penn State fan. PSU’s linebacker play has been a serious issue through the first three games.

With that said, I’m still struggling to wrap my head around Penn State being as bad as they showed last week against Maryland. Yes, they’ve lost some real difference-makers, but I just can’t see a squad that’s won 11 games three of the past four years falling to 0-4 and all but eliminating themselves from a bowl game this early. Jayson Oweh and Shaka Toney have to play well, as Nebraska's tackles have struggled the first two games in pass protection. I think that's a key matchup to watch. Their center, Matt Farniok, has also struggled with blitz pickups, so keep an eye on that.

If I’m being honest though, I have more questions than answers when it comes to this game. If I was leaning in a direction for a bet, I’d go under 56.5. Since I typed that, you should probably take the over.

Penn State: 24

Nebraska: 21

I predicted a big Penn State win last week, based on the following logic. I thought Penn State was just better than Maryland. As long as the Nittany Lions were able to get themselves up for the game, they’d be fine. Well, they didn’t get up for the game. They rolled over and provided little to no resistance as the Terrapins trounced them on their home field.

This week, I can’t help but find myself in a similar place. Penn State’s roster, lined up with Nebraska’s, should be more than good enough to win this game, even when you account for the absence of key members of the Nittany Lions’ backfield in Journey Brown and Noah Cain. This doesn’t feel like an X’s and O’s issue to me. My only question is this: Is the Nittany Lions’ collective will broken? Last week, I operated under the assumption that it wasn’t. This week, I’m not so sure.

Nebraska is the worst offense among Penn State’s first four opponents, and it doesn’t seem like Scott Frost knows — or is willing to share — who his quarterback is going to be on Saturday, which could give the Penn State defense a chance for a reprieve. If — and this is a big if — Penn State’s offense can avoid turning the ball over, I think this could be relatively straightforward for the Nittany Lions. But I thought that last week, and Penn State came out with one of the most listless performances we’ve seen in years. I’m picking them to finally draw a line in the sand this week, but I won’t be surprised if they fold again.

Penn State: 23

Nebraska: 20

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