Analysis: Comparing Penn State's 2021 non-con slate to previous seasons
It's been just over a year-and-a-half since Penn State last played a team from outside of the Big Ten.
The Nittany Lions bested Memphis 53-39 in the Cotton Bowl in 2019, marking their last venture outside of the conference, having played a Big Ten-only regular season in 2020 after electing not to play in a bowl game.
That will extend a bit longer in 2021, as the Nittany Lions open their season with a conference matchup against Wisconsin, but, with what looks to be an interesting nonconference slate ahead, the intrigue could be worth the wait.
Three games against Ball State, Auburn and Villanova could comprise the most challenging slate of nonconference games that James Franklin has put together since his arrival in State College.
To test that theory, BWI analyzed each OOC schedule since Franklin became Penn State's head coach.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
UCF |
55 |
4.7 |
|
Akron |
105 |
-10.7 |
|
UMass |
118 |
-14.7 |
|
Temple |
76 |
-1.4 |
Average Rank 88.5
Average Rating -5.5
Firstly, let's get some housekeeping out of the way. This isn't a perfect exercise for a few reasons. We'll have the benefit of hindsight for 2014 through 2019, obviously, whereas we'll be looking at FPI's predictive model for 2021. Additionally, a school's FPI rating is influenced by each school it plays. So, for example, UCF's FPI would have been slightly better in 2014 had Penn State been more efficient on both sides of the ball, and perhaps won 9 games instead of 7. FPI also doesn't rank FCS teams, which we'll see affect our analysis in 2019 and 2021.
Anyway, this slate ranks as the second-weakest of Franklin's tenure. A neutral site game with a UCF team that won 12 games the previous season was a solid win, but the other three opponents on Penn State's schedule were, to put it gently, not very good, thus weakening the slate considerably.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Temple |
51 |
6.6 |
|
Buffalo |
101 |
-10.6 |
|
SDSU |
53 |
6.3 |
|
Army |
109 |
-14.9 |
Average Rank 78.5
Average Rating: -3.2
Penn State began the season with another game away from home in 2015, and lost to Temple in Philly. It's one of just two nonconference losses the Nittany Lions have suffered under Franklin. A home game with San Diego State also turned out to be decent for the overall numbers here, but Army and Buffalo tank the average and make it the third-worst nonconference slate under Franklin.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Kent State |
109 |
-11.9 |
|
Pitt |
25 |
12.7 |
|
Temple |
40 |
8.6 |
Average Rank 58
Average Rating 3.0
This is far and away the best OOC slate of Franklin's tenure. Kent State turned out to be a true cupcake, but Pitt and Temple were both quality opponents. Pitt beat Penn State 42-39, and has the keychains to prove it. That's the only other nonconference loss Franklin has suffered as the Nittany Lions' head man.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Akron |
105 |
-12.3 |
|
Pitt |
57 |
1.8 |
|
Georgia State |
113 |
-15.5 |
Average Rank 91.7
Average Rating: -8.7
From best to worst, 2017 was the weakest nonconference slate for the Nittany Lions under Franklin. Pitt was unable to replicate its success from the previous season, and Akron and Georgia State both proved to be bottom-30 teams in college football.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
App State |
45 |
6.2 |
|
Pitt |
49 |
4.8 |
|
Kent State |
123 |
-19.4 |
Average Rank 72.3
Average Rating -2.8
It might not have looked this way heading into the game, but 2018 turned out to be a decent test for the Nittany Lions. They needed overtime to beat App State, who turned out to be the best team on their OOC schedule, then steamrolled Pitt in the rain at Heinz Field. Kent State turned out to be another non-factor, as one of the very worst teams in FBS.
| School | FPI Rank | FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Idaho |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Buffalo |
80 |
-3.4 |
|
Pitt |
61 |
0.3 |
Average Rank: 70.5****
Average Rating -1.6****
2019 is a bit more complex, simply because Idaho throws us a curveball because FPI does not rank FCS teams. Instead of arbitrarily trying to decide where the Vandals would fit in those rankings, we just decided to leave them out of the calculation. That makes this nonconference slate look much better than it actually is. If you watched Penn State beat up on them 79-7, you know that Idaho squad was not a particularly great football team.
| School | Preseason FPI Rank | Preseason FPI Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Ball State |
45 |
5.4 |
|
Auburn |
16 |
12.9 |
|
Villanova |
N/A |
N/A |
Average Rank: 30.5
Average Rating: 9.2
So here, with Villanova, we're faced with a similar conundrum to Idaho, because it's an FCS school. For the sake of argument, let's make Villanova the worst FBS school at 131, with a rating of -34. That brings the average rank all the way down to 64.0, making this slate, on average, not as difficult as the one Penn State faced in 2016.
Auburn seems to be the most difficult single test the Nittany Lions will face in their nonconference history under Franklin. The Tigers are a school with SEC pedigree and plenty of talent, even if they did not have the perfect season in 2020, finishing 6-5.
Ball State finished last season at 7-1 and is returning several of its most important players, but that was only good enough to ut them 45th in FPI heading into the new campaign. How their season turns out could play an important role in how this slate gets remembered.
*******
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