BlueWhiteIllustrated.com - Rivals.com Daily NCAA Tournament Tracker

March 11, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball

Consider today to be the lull before the storm.

While there are two conference tournament finals, neither will have any bearing on the at-large pool. And for the most part, the bubble teams playing today are trying to avoid a bad loss rather than pick up an important win.

We will update our "Tournament Tracker" daily as we count down toward Selection Sunday. We take a look at the day's best game and explain how it will impact the NCAA field, as well as spotlight the key game involving bubble teams. We also will review how bubble teams performed in their previous day's games.

NCAA TOURNAMENT TRACKER

GAME OF THE DAY

Notre Dame vs. West Virginia, 7 p.m., ESPN: This is a Big East tournament second-round game. Notre Dame has to win this, then beat Pitt in a quarterfinal, then beat (for the Irish's sake) Connecticut or Syracuse in a semifinal to have an at-large shot. WVU is an NCAA lock and is playing this tournament for NCAA seeding. The Irish can get past the Mountaineers if Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney play well, but anything more than that might be too much to ask.
BUBBLE WATCH GAME OF THE DAY

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State, 7 p.m., Big 12 syndication, Altitude/MASN/ESPN FullCourt: This is a first-round game in the Big 12 tournament. Oklahoma State looks in OK shape for an at-large bid. Beating Iowa State won't help the Cowboys' cause, but losing to the Cyclones could end up being devastating. Part of the allure of tournaments is that bubble teams just as often play their way out of the NCAA field with a bad loss as play their way in with a marquee win. A marquee opponent (Oklahoma) awaits Oklahoma State in the next round ? assuming they don't choke this one away.

NCAA TOURNEY LOCKS (45)
ACC (6): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State (won tourney)
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
Big 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big South (1): Radford (won tourney)
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Colonial (1): Virginia Commonwealth (won tourney)
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (2): Butler, Cleveland State (won tourney)
Ivy (1): Cornell (clinched title)
Metro Atlantic Athletic (1): Siena (won tourney)
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (won tourney)
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Ohio Valley (1): Morehead State (won tourney)
Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1): Chattanooga (won tourney)
Summit (1): North Dakota State (won tourney)
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky (won tourney)
West Coast (1): Gonzaga (won tourney)
ONE-BID LEAGUES REGARDLESS (9)
America East, Big Sky, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, Southwestern Athletic.

KEY RPI FOR TODAY
Notre Dame: 71st
Oklahoma State: 25th
Providence: 72nd
Texas: 35th
Texas A&M: 29th

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST

DePaul vs. Providence
Time, TV: noon, ESPN
This is a second-round game in the Big East tournament. Poor Providence. The Friars were hoping to go 3-0 vs. Cincinnati this season and burnish its at-large r?m?t the same time. Alas, DePaul rose up and beat Cincinnati in a first-round upset. Now, winning a second-round game does nothing for the Friars. They have to avoid a loss, then beat top-seeded Louisville in a quarterfinal to keep the at-large dream alive. Frankly, it probably will take winning today (or, rather, avoiding a loss today), beating Louisville, then beating Marquette or Villanova in a semifinal for Providence to feel good about an at-large bid.

Colorado vs. Texas
Time, TV: 3 p.m., Big 12 syndication, Altitude/MASN/ESPN FullCourt: This is a first-round game in the Big 12 tournament. Texas is largely in the same boat as Oklahoma State. The Longhorns have better at-large credentials, but a loss to the 12th-seeded Buffaloes would be awful at this time of the season.

Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Time, TV: 9:30 p.m., Big 12 syndication, Altitude/MASN/ESPN FullCourt
This is a first-round game in the Big 12 tournament. As with Oklahoma State and Texas, A&M must avoid a first-round loss if it wants to stay on the good side of the bubble.

Mount St. Mary's at Robert Morris in the Northeast Conference tourney final
Time, TV: 8 p.m., ESPN2
Top-seeded Robert Morris swept second-seeded Mount St. Mary's in the regular season ? including a three-point win at home in the regular-season finale ? and comes in having won eight of its past 10. Mount St. Mary's started conference play 0-3 before turning it around. Mount St. Mary's upset top-seeded Robert Morris in last season's tournament semifinal before winning at Sacred Heart in the tourney final.

Montana State vs. Portland State in the Big Sky Conference tourney final in Ogden, Utah
Time, TV: 10:30 p.m., ESPN2
Top-seeded Weber State was stunned at home in the semifinals by sixth-seeded Montana State, and second-seeded Portland State ? which won the tourney last season ? hopes to be able to take advantage. The teams split in the regular season, with each winning on its home court. Portland State has won seven of its past nine overall. Montana State is 15-16 overall and almost certainly would be in the NCAA tournament play-in game should it win this one.

HOW BUBBLE TEAMS PERFORMED SATURDAY

NO CHANCE FOR A BID NOW
Cincinnati: The Bearcats were a long shot going into the Big East tournament first-round game with DePaul. A loss to the Blue Demons, who had been winless in conference play, means the Bearcats can start wondering whether they will get to host an NIT game. RPI: 82nd. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-9. Record vs. RPI top 100: 7-12.
Georgetown: The Hoyas were in the same predicament as Cincinnati, and a first-round loss to St. John's puts an emphatic period on the end of the at-large run. The Hoyas, too, can start hoping they can host an NIT game. RPI: 57th. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-8. Record vs. RPI top 100: 7-12.