BlueWhiteIllustrated.com - Preview: NCAA Wrestling Championships

March 20, 2013

Tim Owen
BlueWhiteIllustrated.com Staff Writer

Full brackets here

WHEN March 21-23. The first (12:00 p.m. - 3/21) and second (7:30 p.m. - 3/21) rounds will air on ESPN3. The quarterfinals (11:00 a.m. - 3/22), semifinals (7:00 p.m. - 3/22) and medal rounds (11:00 a.m. - 3/23) will air on ESPNU. And the finals (8:00 p.m. - 3/23) will air on ESPN.

BWI will provide live updates for all six sessions in the Lions Den message board.

WHERE Iowa State, Cael Sanderson's alma mater, plays host at the Wells Fargo Center in Des Moines, Iowa. The Cyclones may be considered the home team in the near 17,000-seat arena, but the Iowa Hawkeyes will be out in full force, which was made evident by the "Go Hawks" billboard near the airport. Consider it their home territory, too.

AT STAKE A three-peat, of course. After cruising to a Big Ten tournament title, Penn State is the clear-cut favorite for a third consecutive NCAA championship, a feat that would match Iowa's run in 2008-10. Defending national champion David Taylor is poised to have the match of his life vs. Cornell senior Kyle Dake. And since ESPN and the NCAA will air the 165-pound final as the very last bout of the tournament, more eyes are expected to be on this matchup than any in history.

LAST SEASON The heavily favored Nittany Lions took St. Louis by storm in 2012, winning their second consecutive NCAA team championship while crowning three individual champs. In all, Penn State tallied 143.5 team points. It was also the highest point total in school history, the most by any Division I program in seven years and 25.5 more than second-place Minnesota. Six Nittany Lions earned All-America laurels, five of whom are back in 2013.

Taylor was named the tournament's Outstanding Wrestler, the Hodge Trophy winner as the top collegiate wrestler and the NCAA's Most Dominant wrestler. No wonder why his matchup with Dake, a three-time champ, is causing such a raucous.

BEST FINISH Thirty six points separated last year's title run from the title run in 2011, so technically 2012 was the best year in school history. Before 2011, however, Penn State hadn't won a title since 1953.

FAVORITES Unless Oklahoma State makes a run, the national title is going to stay within the Big Ten. But that doesn't necessarily mean the results of the conference tournament will translate to NCAAs.

It's a larger, more complex tournament than Big Tens, and since individual results are bound to be different, team results could fluctuate, too.

For the entire season Penn State has sat atop Intermat's Tournament Power Index. So the Lions are certainly the favorite, but they aren't as heavily favored as the 2012 squad. Minnesota was on the heels of Penn State throughout Big Tens and the Gophers appear to be the Lions' biggest threat.

Iowa's dangerous, too. Sure, they didn't crown even one Big Ten champ, a first in seven years, but that could be the motivation the Hawkeyes need. They have at least three individuals who could be standing atop the podium, and that's what they'll need to dethrone PSU.

DARK HORSE It's extremely unlikely that a program other than Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota or Oklahoma State will win the team crown. They are just too loaded with bonus-point firepower to be overtaken.

Ohio State, however, has spent most of the season ranked in the top five, and if the Stieber brothers reach their respective finals, along with a poor showing from a couple of the top teams, the Buckeyes could squeeze their way into the top four.

As for the smaller programs, look for Central Michigan to make a push into the top 10. Also, North Dakota State has a few upset-minded wrestlers who could shake up the final results.

OW CANDIDATES Whoever wins the 165-pound blockbuster - that's assuming Taylor and Dake do actually meet - will likely be the favorite for the tournament's Outstanding Wrestler award.

But Ed Ruth has been nearly untouchable during the regular season, and if he steamrolls through the 184-pound bracket like he did a year ago at 174, he will deserve strong consideration.

Watch out for Iowa's Matt McDonough (125), Tony Ramos (133) and Derek St. John (157). At least one Hawkeye wrestler is bound to do something special, given that the tournament is taking place in the center of the country's largest wrestling fan base. Ohio State's Logan Stieber (133), Oklahoma State's Jordan Oliver (149), Kent State's Dustin Kilgore (197) and Penn State's Quentin Wright (197) will also be in contention.

PENN STATE'S OUTLOOK Qualifying all 10 of its wrestlers for the first time under Sanderson, Penn State is heavily favored to win its third title in a row. But it won't come easy - not with the tournament taking place in Hawkeye territory. The Nittany Lions could send at least five wrestlers to the championship round, but, realistically, they could also finish with only one individual champ.

Meanwhile, Iowa could have three wrestlers standing atop the podium when it's all said and done, and Oklahoma State and Minnesota could have at least two or three. They are the biggest threats to Penn State, so look for this team race to come down to the final few bouts. During the past two seasons, Penn State clinched the team title before the final round even began. The Nittany Lions will likely need all 10 of its wrestlers to earn team points if that's to happen again this season.

Weight-by-weight breakdown

125
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After making the final as a true freshman, Nico Megaludis (24-3) is on a mission for his first NCAA title. But he'll have a loaded weight class working against him.?
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Iowa's Matt McDonough (20-3) has competed in the past three NCAA finals, and last season he won his second title by topping Megaludis, 4-1. He holds a 4-0 career advantage over the sophomore Nittany Lion, including a win at the dual meet earlier in the year.

McDonough, however, has struggled with other opponents this season and has suffered as many losses as he did in the previous two years combined.

llinois' Jesse Delgado (21-3), especially, has had his number. Delgado has beaten McDonough twice this year and once last year. Delgado has scored more points on McDonough than anyone else in the defending national champ's career. The Big Ten foes are likely to meet again in the semifinal.

Missouri's Alan Waters (29-0), the top seed, also beat McDonough this season. Waters and Megaludis could meet in the semifinal on top half of the bracket. With contenders like Megaludis, Delgado and Waters, this weight class could be the most compelling of the bunch. But with two titles in his pocket, McDonough holds the edge at the NCAA tournament until someone proves otherwise.
?
Favorite: Matt McDonough, Iowa
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Dark Horse: Trent Sprenkle, North Dakota State
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133
?
Jordan Conaway (16-8) has surprised a lot of opponents this season. He went from a relative unknown to the No. 12 seed at the national tournament. He could pull off another surprise by garnering All-America laurels as a redshirt freshman. That's a legitimate possibility. With the top two ranked wrestlers - Ohio State's Logan Stieber (21-0) and Iowa's Tony Ramos (27-1) - heavily favored to meet in the final, the battle for the third- through eighth-place medals is wide open.
?
Stieber, the returning champion, is undefeated, and, pound for pound, he was the most dominant wrestler in the country during the regular season, according to the NCAA. But Ramos has had a career season and has more mat time than Stieber, who was sidelined for a few weeks in January with a leg injury. Stieber was victorious when they met in the Big Ten final.
?
Favorite: Logan Stieber, Ohio State
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Dark Horse: Nathan McCormick, Missouri
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141
?
For the first time in his career, Bryan Pearsall (23-9) is heading to the national tournament. Pearsall had an up-and-down regular season and never broke into the top 20. Although he is the only unranked Nittany Lion, Pearsall is eager to make the most of his postseason experience. Earning All-America status might be difficult in a top-heavy weight class, but look for him to make some noise early in the tournament.
?
This class has been dominated by Oklahoma's Kendric Maple (25-0), Ohio State's Hunter Stieber (31-0) during the regular season. They will be vying for their first appearance in a national final, while a host of wrestlers ranked fourth through 14th, have All-America potential.
?
Favorite: Hunter Stieber, Ohio State
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Dark Horse: Bryan Pearsall, Penn State

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149
?
Andrew Alton (26-4) has been an enigma as a redshirt sophomore. He won 17 consecutive bouts to begin the season and was ranked third in the country, but struggled to regain his stride following a one-month suspension. He heads into NCAAs with the No. 11 seed with a mess of talented 149-pounders to overcome. Alton has proven he has big-move pinning capability, but he will need to wrestle a full seven-minute match (or longer), if he's to break into the All-America rounds. Be assured that Penn State will need him there for the team race.
?
Oklahoma State's Jordan Oliver (33-0) has moved up 16 pounds after two consecutive 133-pound final appearances and is the clear-cut favorite in this weight class. Though Minnesota's Dylan Ness (14-4) had been inconsistent and struggled with an injury throughout the regular season, he claimed the Big Ten tourney title two weeks ago and appears to be peaking at the right time. He reached the NCAA final a year ago. He certainly wants to make a return trip.
?
Favorite: Jordan Oliver, Oklahoma State
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Dark Horse: Scott Sakaguchi, Oregon State

157
?
Dylan Alton (24-6) had more success than his twin brother after returning from the one-month suspension that they both were forced to serve, but he's had his struggles too, finishing sixth at the Big Ten tournament.

He finished third at last year's NCAA tournament, though, so he proved last year that he's one of the best at this weight class. Though he finished lower than he had hoped at the conference tournament, his No. 6 seed actually helped him receive a favorable draw. He's on the same side of the bracket as top-seeded Jason Welch (36-1) of Northwestern and No. 4 James Green (20-4) of Nebraska. Alton has beaten both multiple times in his career, so a trip to the championship round is a realistic possibility.

Waiting for him, however, will likely be Derek St. John (26-2) of Iowa, who holds a 3-0 career advantage and served Alton his only loss at last year's NCAA tournament. St. John slipped at the Big Ten tournament two weeks ago, but he spent the season ranked atop this weight class. As the No. 2 seed, he's arguably has the best chance of winning this talent-rich weight class.

?
Favorite: Derek St. John, Iowa
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Dark Horse: Kyle Bradley, Missouri
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165
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For obvious reasons, this weight class alone will be worth the price of admission. As soon as Cornell's Kyle Dake (32-0) made the announcement that he was moving up to 165 - with hopes of becoming the first college wrestler to win four national titles at four weight classes - wrestling aficionados have been impatiently waiting for a matchup between?Dake and the returning national champ David Taylor (26-1). If either one gets upset before the championship round, it might send the entire city of Des Moines into a tailspin.
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Dake previously defeated Taylor at the Olympic freestyle wrestling trials in April, the NWCA All-Star Classic in November and at the Southern Scuffle in January. Does Taylor end the streak and prevent Dake from making wrestling history? That's been his sole focus since that January loss, but as of now, Dake holds the edge.
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Favorite: Kyle Dake, Cornell
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Dark Horse: Steven Monk, North Dakota State
?
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174?
?
Without a doubt, this is the tournament's most wide-open weight class. Any of the top eight wrestlers - Minnesota's Logan Storely (24-3), Oklahoma State's Chris Perry (30-2), Iowa's Mike Evans (19-4), Nebraska's Robert Kokesh (33-3), Maryland's Josh Asper (19-1), Ohio State's Nick Heflin, (15-5) Illinois' Jordan Blanton (22-10) and Matt Brown (25-4) -?could end up on the final stage. The six from the Big Ten have all defeated each other at least once this season and are seeking their first appearance in a national final.
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Brown fell to Storley, Evans, Kokesh and Heflin during the second half of the season, but he tore through the field at the Big Ten tournament, which, if you haven't noticed, featured six of this weight's top eight competitors. The title helped Brown earn the No. 2 seed and gave the redshirt sophomore momentum heading into Des Moines.
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Favorite: Chris Perry, Oklahoma State
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Dark Horse: Blake Stauffer, Arizona State
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184

Ed Ruth (28-0) is riding a 63-match winning streak that dates back to his freshman season, and truthfully, there doesn't appear to be a 184-pounder in the nation who can snap it. He defeated Cornell's Steve Bosak (20-2), the returning NCAA champ, 7-3, in January, and beat Minnesota's Kevin Steinhaus (26-2) in the Big Ten final, 5-3.
?
Aside from Steinhaus, his closest bout came against Lehigh's Robert Hamlin (22-3) during the first match of the season, in which Ruth held on for an 11-9 victory. That very well could have been a preview of the NCAA final. But Ben Bennett of Central Michigan (27-0) has been on a tear this season and he received the No. 2 nod. He has yet to wrestle Ruth, but he could match up well against the redshirt junior.
?
Favorite: Ed Ruth, Penn State
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Dark Horse: Ryan Loder, Northern Iowa
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197
?
After two consecutive appearances in the 184-pound final, Quentin Wright (27-0) made the jump to 197 for his final campaign and has yet to lose. For the first time in his five-year career, he completed a regular season undefeated. In past years, he did his most impressive wrestling in the postseason, so is the best yet to come? Maybe so.
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Standing in his way of a second national title, however, is Dustin Kilgore (39-0). The Kent State standout has sat atop the rankings for the entire season, and according to the NCAA, he was the nation's second-most-dominant pound-for-pound wrestler in the regular season. Kilgore won the 197-pound title in 2011 but took an Olympic redshirt a season ago.?
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Pittsburgh's Matt Wilps (19-2) and Wyoming's Alfonso Hernandez (30-1) could also stand between Wright and a second title.
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Favorite: Quentin Wright, Penn State
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Dark Horse: Nate Schiedel, Binghamton
?
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285
?
After battling for the starting spot throughout the season, Jimmy Lawson (21-7) will represent the Penn State heavyweights. He played college football the past two years, so it took a few months to shake off the rust and return to wrestling form. He earned an extremely difficult draw for the national tournament. He faces Ohio's Jeremy Johnson, who beat Lawson earlier in the season.
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Minnesota's Tony Nelson (28-1) is the defending national champion, but he's seeded No. 2. His only loss of the season was to Missouri's Dom Bradley (35-1), who nabbed the top seed, but Nelson proved last season that he's a gamer and he'll be tough to beat once the tournament gets rolling. Iowa's Bobby Telford (20-6) and Oklahoma State's Alan Gelogaev (24-3) could make a splash, too. If either the Hawkeyes or Cowboys are going to make a run for the team title, they will need a few big wins from their heavyweight.
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Favorite: Tony Nelson, Minnesota
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Dark Horse: Jarod Trice, Central Michigan

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